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Current account constraint as a barrier to international trade: the evidence from the European enlargement process?

  • Maurel, Mathilde

In a seminal paper, Rose (2000) emphasises the strong effect of the currency union membership on trade, controlling for exchange rate volatility. This effect is described as puzzling by Rose himself. If capital markets are incomplete and reluctant to finance trade imbalances, attempts at trade integration might be constrained by the degree of bilateral business cycle correlation. A contrario, complete monetary integration within monetary unions allows a relaxation of the current account constraint, a phenomenon that explains Rose's estimate of extra trade within monetary unions, which swells to three times the normal volume of trade. This paper provides evidence that monetary and fiscal co-ordinations matter not only within monetary unions, but also within any monetary setting, from floats to pegs. Available data on government spending allow direct testing of hypotheses on policy co-ordination.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 301-317

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:28:y:2004:i:3:p:301-317
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," Working Papers 98.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Babetskii, Ian & Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 212-229, June.
  6. Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. Flandreau, Marc & Maurel, Mathilde, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," CEPR Discussion Papers 3087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, 01.
  9. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  10. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
  11. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  12. Kutan, Ali M. & Pautola-Mol, Niina, 2001. "Integration of the Baltic states into the EU and institutions of fiscal convergence: A critical evaluation of key issues and empirical evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 10-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  13. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  14. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  15. Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Endogenous Symmetry of Shocks in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 263-287, July.
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