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Monetary Union, Trade Integration and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Flandreau

    (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, GEM - Groupe d'économie mondiale - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Centre for Finance and Development - GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES)

  • Mathilde Maurel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were associated with substantially higher trade. The Austro-Hungarian dual monarchy, by many aspects a forerunner of Euroland, improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. Other arrangements, such as the gold standard and the Scandinavian union also impacted trade favourably. To explain this, we argue that monetary coordination, by fostering the correlation of business cycles compensate the adverse effect that the current account constraint has on trade integration. This is found to vastly compensate the negative consequences that trade integration might have on the symmetry of shocks, of which this Paper finds strong evidence, in contrast with recent empirical work.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03568970, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03568970
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-005-5872-4
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    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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