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European trade patterns after the transition

  • Havrylyshyn, Oleh
  • Pritchett, Lant

This paper concentrates on geographic direction of trade only. It applies a fairly conventional gravity model technique to answer the question: What would be the geographic pattern of trade of East and Central Europe (ECE) if their trade were determined by the same factors as those that affect market economies? It consists of the following sections: (a) a general introduction to this question and the paper's objectives; (b) a presentation of the model and the estimation results for a sample of non-socialist countries; and (c) a report on the ECE simulations. The paper concludes by predicting a dramatic shift in trade patterns and discusses the implications of such a shift.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 748.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 1991
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:748
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