European trade patterns after the transition
This paper concentrates on geographic direction of trade only. It applies a fairly conventional gravity model technique to answer the question: What would be the geographic pattern of trade of East and Central Europe (ECE) if their trade were determined by the same factors as those that affect market economies? It consists of the following sections: (a) a general introduction to this question and the paper's objectives; (b) a presentation of the model and the estimation results for a sample of non-socialist countries; and (c) a report on the ECE simulations. The paper concludes by predicting a dramatic shift in trade patterns and discusses the implications of such a shift.
|Date of creation:||31 Aug 1991|
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