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Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members

Author

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • György Szapáry

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

It is generally recognized that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyze the synchronization of business cycles between the EMU and eight new EU members from Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), for which the next step to be considered in the integration process is entry into the EMU. In contrast to the usually analyzed GDP and industrial production data, we extend our analysis to the major expenditure and sectoral components of GDP and use several measures of synchronization. The main findings of the paper are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronization with the EMU for GDP, industrial production and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been a significant increase in the synchronization of GDP and also its major components in the EMU members since the start of the run-up to EMU. While this lends support for the existence of OCA endogeneity, it can not be unambiguously attributed to it because there is also evidence of a world business cycle. Another finding is that the consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members, which is good news for common monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2004. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and Old Members," MNB Working Papers 2004/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2004/1
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    2. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    3. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    4. Peter Benczur & Attila Ratfai, 2010. "Economic fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe: the facts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3279-3292.
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    6. Tatomir, Cristina F., 2011. "Structural Convergence of the Central and Eastern European Countries: Achivements in the Last Decade," MPRA Paper 35701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Banerjee, Anindya & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 482, European Central Bank.
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    10. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
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    12. repec:rom:bemann:v:6:y:2016:i:1:p:36-42 is not listed on IDEAS
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    20. Igor Veličkovski & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2014. "Is the European integration speeding up the economic convergence process of the Central and South-Eastern European countries? A shock perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 287-321, May.
    21. Gilson, Nathalie alias Natacha & Labondance, Fabien, 2013. "Synchronisation des chocs d’offre et de demande en Europe – Un après-euro ou une après-crise des subprimes ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 155-189, Septembre.
    22. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2007. "Monetary Integration of the New EU Member States: What Sets the Pace of Euro Adoption?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 367-409, June.
    23. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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    25. Tatomir, Cristina F. & Alexe, Ileana, 2011. "Laggards or performers? CEE vs. PIIGS countries’ catch-up with the Euro area in the last ten years," MPRA Paper 35715, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle synchronization; consumption-correlation puzzle; EMU; new EU members; OCA endogeneity.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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