Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia
As trade integration deepens in East Asia, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles among East Asian countries. Theoretically, however, increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to shift in either direction: while inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization would induce less synchronization, intra-industry trade could overturn this tendency. By using the data for twelve Asian economies, this paper finds that intra-industry trade is the major channel through which business cycles become synchronized among Asian economies, although increased trade itself does not necessarily lead to close business cycle coherence. This result has important implications for the prospects of a currency union in the region.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999.
"Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
- Liliane Karlinger, 2002. "The Impact of Common Currencies on Financial Markets: A Literature Review and Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers 02-35, Bank of Canada.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joe Stone & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 1995. "Determinants of intra-industry trade: A longitudinal, cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 67-85, March.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999.
"Trade Policy and Economic Growth: a Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence,"
9912, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 1999.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodríguez, Francisco & Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Sceptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2143, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999.
"Borders and business cycles,"
Research Working Paper
99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Rice, Patricia & Stewart, Martin & Venables, Anthony J, 2002.
"The Geography of Intra-Industry Trade: Empirics,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Imbs, Jean, 2003.
"Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
- Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," Post-Print hal-00612588, HAL.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2000.
NBER Working Papers
7927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2003. "A Currency Union in East Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0571, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
- Balassa, Bela, 1986. "Intra-Industry specialization : A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 27-42, February.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2001. "The Endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Nov 1998.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement,"
Contemporary Economic Policy,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, 01.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," LICOS Discussion Papers 10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
- Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
- Balassa, Bela & Bauwens, Luc, 1988. "The determinants of intra-European trade in manufactured goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1421-1437, September.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fumiko Matsumoto)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.