Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia
As trade integration deepens in East Asia, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles among East Asian countries. Theoretically, however, increased trade can lead business cycles across trading partners to shift in either direction: while inter-industry trade resulting in higher specialization would induce less synchronization, intra-industry trade could overturn this tendency. By using the data for twelve Asian economies, this paper finds that intra-industry trade is the major channel through which business cycles become synchronized among Asian economies, although increased trade itself does not necessarily lead to close business cycle coherence. This result has important implications for the prospects of a currency union in the region.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 6-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-0047|
Web page: http://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002.
"Financial autarky and international business cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
- Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2000.
NBER Working Papers
7927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Jean Imbs, 2004.
"Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
- Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," Post-Print hal-00612588, HAL.
- Venables Anthony J. & Rice Patricia G. & Stewart Martin, 2003.
"The Geography of Intra-Industry Trade: empirics,"
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy,
De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, September.
- Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001.
"Borders and business cycles,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement,"
LICOS Discussion Papers
10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, 01.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2001. "The endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria, intraindustry trade and EMU enlargement," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
- Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Balassa, Bela, 1986. "Intra-Industry specialization : A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 27-42, February.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
- Joe Stone & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 1995. "Determinants of intra-industry trade: A longitudinal, cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 131(1), pages 67-85, March.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001.
"Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodríguez, Francisco & Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Sceptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2143, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Liliane Karlinger, 2002. "The Impact of Common Currencies on Financial Markets: A Literature Review and Evidence from the Euro Area," Staff Working Papers 02-35, Bank of Canada.
- David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1995.
"Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836.
- Hummels, D. & Levinsohn, J., 1993. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," Working Papers 339, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1993. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balassa, Bela & Bauwens, Luc, 1988. "The determinants of intra-European trade in manufactured goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1421-1437, September.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Nov 1998.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2003. "A Currency Union in East Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0571, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fumiko Matsumoto)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.