IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lau/crdeep/9906.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime

Author

Listed:
  • Jean IMBS

Abstract

In a recent paper, Frankel and Rose (1998) documented endogenous effects of a monetary union, whereby costs and benefits of the union evolve after its implementation. This paper questions their findings on three grounds. First, their main result that trading partners display relatively more synchronized cycles is not robust to the presence of fixed effects, or variables omitted from their estimation liable to generate both intense trade and synchronized cycles. Second, the cost of giving up independent monetary policy is usually evaluated on the basis of the extent of co-fluctuations between business cycles. We bring into focus which measure of the cycle ought to be used for that purpose. In particular, such measure should in our opinion reflect how synchronized cycles would be in the absence of independent monetary policy. Third, documenting the assumption that fixed exchange rate regimes translate into more bilateral trade has proved elusive. We show that using a bilateral rather than cross-country approach brings little improvement on that front.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, revised Nov 1998.
  • Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9906
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/textes/9906.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    3. Imbs, Jean M., 1999. "Technology, growth and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 65-80, August.
    4. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles: Common Shocks or Transmission?," CEPR Discussion Papers 781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Elhanan Helpman & David T. Coe, 1993. "International RandD Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 93/84, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
    7. Luca Ricci, 2006. "Uncertainty, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Agglomeration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 197-219, April.
    8. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, EconWPA, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    9. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May.
    10. Hornstein, Andreas & Praschnik, Jack, 1997. "Intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 573-595, December.
    11. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    12. David Backus & Patrick Kehoe & Finn Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1996. "Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," Working Papers 98.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    16. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    17. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Mélitz, 2002. "Partage du risque dans l'Union européenne. Expériences interrégionales et internationales," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 299-323.
    2. Salvador Barrios & Marius Br¸lhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    3. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
    4. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    5. Melitz, Jacques & Zumer, Frederic, 1999. "Interregional and international risk-sharing and lessons for EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 149-188, December.
    6. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:53:y:2008:i:02:n:s021759080800294x is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Output Movements in East Asia: Is There a Regional Factor?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 738-762, June.
    8. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    9. D. Furceri & G. Karras, 2008. "Business-cycle synchronization in the EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1491-1501.
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/762 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 104-123, April.
    12. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    13. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    14. Michael J. Artis, 2000. "The UK and the EMU," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 67, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    15. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:03:n:s0217590818400064 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; optimal currency area; international business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9906. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gaëlle Sarda). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deelsch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.