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Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime

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  • Jean IMBS

Abstract

In a recent paper, Frankel and Rose (1998) documented endogenous effects of a monetary union, whereby costs and benefits of the union evolve after its implementation. This paper questions their findings on three grounds. First, their main result that trading partners display relatively more synchronized cycles is not robust to the presence of fixed effects, or variables omitted from their estimation liable to generate both intense trade and synchronized cycles. Second, the cost of giving up independent monetary policy is usually evaluated on the basis of the extent of co-fluctuations between business cycles. We bring into focus which measure of the cycle ought to be used for that purpose. In particular, such measure should in our opinion reflect how synchronized cycles would be in the absence of independent monetary policy. Third, documenting the assumption that fixed exchange rate regimes translate into more bilateral trade has proved elusive. We show that using a bilateral rather than cross-country approach brings little improvement on that front.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean IMBS, 1998. "Fluctuations, Bilateral Trade and the Exchange Rate Regime," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9906, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie, revised Nov 1998.
  • Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
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    3. Imbs, Jean M., 1999. "Technology, growth and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 65-80, August.
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    16. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    2. Melitz, Jacques & Zumer, Frederic, 1999. "Interregional and international risk-sharing and lessons for EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 149-188, December.
    3. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    5. Salvador Barrios & Marius Brülhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co‐Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    6. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Mélitz, 2002. "Partage du risque dans l'Union européenne. Expériences interrégionales et internationales," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 299-323.
    7. Pradumna B. Rana, 2008. "Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization: The Case Of East Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(02), pages 279-292.
    8. D. Furceri & G. Karras, 2008. "Business-cycle synchronization in the EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1491-1501.
    9. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 104-123, April.
    10. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    11. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
    12. Michael J. Artis, 2000. "The UK and the EMU," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 67, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    13. Maria Socorro Gochoco‐Bautista, 2008. "Output Movements in East Asia: Is There a Regional Factor?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 738-762, June.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/762 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Hui-Ying Sng & Liyu Dou & Pradumna Bickram Rana, 2017. "Catalyst Of Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(03), pages 703-719, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; optimal currency area; international business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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