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Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions

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  • Jan Fidrmuc
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Shuo Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the changing nature of economic integration in China. Specifically, we consider business-cycle synchronization (correlation of demand and supply shocks) among Chinese provinces during the period 1955-2007. We find that the symmetry of supply shocks has declined after the liberalization initiated in 1978. In contrast, the correlation of demand shocks has increased during the same period. We then seek to explain these correlations by relating them to factors that proxy for interprovincial trade and vulnerability of regions to idiosyncratic shocks. Interprovincial trade and similarity in factor endowments tend to make shocks more symmetric. Surprisingly, foreign trade and inward FDI have little effect on the symmetry of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc & Shuo Huang, 2013. "Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4220, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4220
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    2. Xiang Luo & Xinhai Lu & Zuo Zhang & Yue Pan, 2020. "Regional differences and rural public expenditure cyclicality: evidence from transitory and persistent shocks in China," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(2), pages 281-318, October.
    3. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Libman, Alexander & Yu, Xiaofan, 2014. "Economic integration in China: Politics and culture," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 470-492.
    4. Huasheng Song & Min Zhang & Ruqu Wang, 2016. "Amenities and spatial talent distribution: evidence from the Chinese IT industry," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(3), pages 517-533.
    5. Zhang, Chi & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shao, Zhen, 2017. "Exploring the transformation and upgrading of China’s economy using electricity consumption data: A VAR–VEC based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 144-155.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR model; business cycle synchronization; China; reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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