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Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong


  • Gerlach-Kristen, Petra


This paper uses annual data spanning 1962 to 2003 to examine whether business and inflation cycles have become more similar across Chinese provinces as the economy has been liberalised and modernised. We find evidence of synchronisation, although business cycles in a group of mainly northwestern provinces appear to have diverged from those in the rest of China. Both the business and inflation cycles in Hong Kong seem to have become increasingly synchronised with those in the Mainland over recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:404-418

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    2. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
    4. Guo, Haifeng & Brooks, Robert & Shami, Roland, 2010. "Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model--Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 196-210, April.
    5. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-33.
    6. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 298-317.
    7. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
    8. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    9. Fabrizio Carmignani & James S. Laurenceson, 2013. "Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 323-340, April.


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