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Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong

  • Gerlach-Kristen, Petra

This paper uses annual data spanning 1962 to 2003 to examine whether business and inflation cycles have become more similar across Chinese provinces as the economy has been liberalised and modernised. We find evidence of synchronisation, although business cycles in a group of mainly northwestern provinces appear to have diverged from those in the rest of China. Both the business and inflation cycles in Hong Kong seem to have become increasingly synchronised with those in the Mainland over recent years.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 404-418

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:404-418
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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  1. Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2006. "Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China," BIS Working Papers 194, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
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  8. Gregory Chow, 2006. "Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 396-414, June.
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  12. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  13. Jahangir Aziz & Christoph Duenwald, 2001. "China's Provincial Growth Dynamics," Development and Comp Systems 0012004, EconWPA.
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