IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries

  • Kim, Won Joong
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat

By using a modern structural VAR with block exogeneity and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes several global and regional oil and macroeconomic relationships related to the selected incumbent GCC member countries – Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia – and the potential member Jordan. First, it examines the global macroeconomic linkages among the dollar exchange rate, oil price, China's producer price, U.S.'s export price, EU's export price and Japan's export price. Second, it investigates the effects of global and country-specific shocks on the industrial production and consumer price indices of these GCC member countries and the potential member Jordan. It thereby examines which individual global/local shocks command more importance in explaining the variations in the economic growth and inflation of each actual and potential GCC member. Third, it analyzes the similarities in economic growth and inflation among the GCC countries after controlling for different global and country-specific shocks. The results suggest that the overall CPI inflation rates of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are highly and positively correlated. The economic growth of Jordan shows negative correlations with those of the member countries. If the GCC members are to focus only on stabilizing inflation, there is no harm for them to accept Jordan as a new GCC member. However, if the GCC's objective is not only the stabilization of inflation but also the business cycle synchronization, the GCC members should be more cautious in accepting Jordan as a new member.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056012001268
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 298-317

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:298-317
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kamiar Mohaddes & Oral H. Williams, 2013. "Inflation Differentials In The Gcc: Does The Oil Cycle Matter?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1350012-1-1.
  2. Stephen P.A. Brown & Keith R. Phillips, 1986. "Exchange rates and world oil prices," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
  3. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
  4. Philip R. Lane, & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp05, IIIS.
  5. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
  6. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, 01.
  7. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region; The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 08/193, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Baldwin, John R. & Yan, Beiling, 2008. "Domestic and foreign influences on Canadian prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 546-557, October.
  9. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, March.
  10. Abu-Qarn, Aamer S. & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2007. "Sources of Growth Revisited: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 752-771, May.
  11. Agiomirgianakis, George & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2001. "Globalization of labor markets and macroeconomic equilibrium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 109-133.
  12. Basher, Syed Abul & Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa, 2010. "Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 27348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Banik, Nilanjan & Biswas, Basudeb & Criddle, Keith R., 2009. "Optimum currency area in South Asia: A state space approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 502-510, June.
  14. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 319-334, April.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  16. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  18. Magda E. Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2009. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," IMF Working Papers 09/82, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Inflation Differentials between Spain and the EMU: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1141-1166, 09.
  20. Won Joong Kim & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa A. Aleisa, 2012. "SYNCHRONIZATION OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS BETWEEN GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL AND UNITED STATES, EUROPE, JAPAN, AND OIL MARKET: CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME-super-†," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(4), pages 584-602, October.
  21. Ali Darrat & Fatima Al-Shamsi, 2005. "On the path of integration in the Gulf region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1055-1062.
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  23. Lastrapes, William D., 2005. "Estimating and identifying vector autoregressions under diagonality and block exogeneity restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 75-81, April.
  24. Shafik Hebous, 2006. "On the Monetary Union of the Gulf States," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 431, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  25. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2011. "Commodities and financial variables: Analyzing relationships in a changing regime environment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 469-484, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:298-317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.