IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v39y2015icp239-252.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price level and inflation in the GCC countries

Author

Listed:
  • Murshed, Hasan
  • Nakibullah, Ashraf

Abstract

The prevailing pegged exchange rate system has been blamed for the recent higher inflation in the GCC countries. However, empirical evidence for period 1975–2011 shows that the short-run and long-run exchange rate pass-through elasticities to the consumer price levels of the GCC countries, in contrast to the popular belief, are either close to zero or statistically insignificant. The trading partners' (foreign) inflation is the main determinant of the consumer price inflation in these countries. Domestic factors play only a small part in the long-run determination of inflation of the GCC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:239-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.04.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056015000714
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2015.04.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Performance of the Oil-Exporting Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(2), pages 139-157, August.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    3. Mohsin S. Khan, 2010. "The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    5. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants Of Inflation In Gcc," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 141-158.
    6. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 298-317.
    7. Burstein, Ariel & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2007. "Modeling exchange rate passthrough after large devaluations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 346-368, March.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Sturm, Michael & Adolf, Petra & Peschel, Dominik & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "The Gulf Cooperation Council countries: economic structures, recent developments and role in the global economy," Occasional Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    10. Michael Sturm & Jan Strasky & Petra Adolf & Dominik Peschel, 2008. "The Gulf Cooperation Council countries – economic structures, recent developments and role in the global economy," Occasional Paper Series 92, European Central Bank.
    11. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2004. "Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? The case of imported beer," Staff Reports 179, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    13. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 2008/193, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    15. ,, 2009. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 8, number 9780199563234.
    16. Ghosh, Amit & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through in Korea and Thailand: Trends and determinants," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-70, January.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, José Manuel, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. M. Kabir Hassan & Ashraf Nakibullah & Abul Hassan, 2013. "Sterilisation and Monetary Control by the GCC Member Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(12), pages 1566-1587, December.
    20. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2004. "Who Bears the Cost of a Change in the Exchange Rate?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 589, Econometric Society.
    21. Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn & Suleiman Abu‐Bader, 2008. "On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 612-630, May.
    22. Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2003. "Monetary Union Among Member Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/006, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2018. "Economic Diversification in Bahrain," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(5), pages 67-74, September.
    2. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy of the GCC Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 11-19, March.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Ma, Jun-Teng, 2024. "Exchange rate and inflation between China and the United States: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    4. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Pass-through of import cost into consumer prices and inflation in GCC countries: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 89-101.
    5. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2016. "Impacts of Foreign and Domestic Structural Shocks on Consumer Prices of the GCC Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(2), pages 34-43, December.
    6. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "State of Shocks Synchronization among Members of the GCC," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 15-23, June.
    7. Kia, Amir & Jafari, Mahboubeh, 2020. "Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
    9. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2016. "Impacts of Foreign and Domestic Structural Shocks on Consumer Prices of the GCC Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(2), pages 34-43, December.
    2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 83-110, March.
    4. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "State of Shocks Synchronization among Members of the GCC," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 15-23, June.
    5. Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    7. Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 2008/193, International Monetary Fund.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Algeria: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Weshah Razzak, "undated". "On the GCC Currency Union," API-Working Paper Series 0910, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    10. Christian Dreger & Teymur Rahmani, 2016. "The impact of oil revenues on the Iranian economy and the Gulf states," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 40(1), pages 36-49, March.
    11. Pradeep, Siddhartha, 2022. "Impact of diesel price reforms on asymmetricity of oil price pass-through to inflation: Indian perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    12. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Jay, Squalli, 2011. "Is the dollar peg suitable for the largest economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 496-512, October.
    14. Mustafizur Rahman & Mazbahul Golam Ahamad & A K M Nazrul Islam & Muhammad Al Amin, 2012. "Agricultural Trade between Bangladesh and India: An Analysis of Trends, Trading Patterns and Determinants," CPD-CMI Working Paper 3, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    15. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S. & Gonzalez-Minguez, Jose M., 2005. "Exchange-rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," IESE Research Papers D/609, IESE Business School.
    16. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Alhajhoj, Hassan R., 2012. "Long Run Relationship between IFDI and Domestic Investment in GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 62544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2013.
    17. Alpaslan, Baris & Demirel, Baki, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect on Prices and Inflation Targeting: A Comparison of Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 53726, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School.
    19. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2006. "The internationalization of the dollar and trade balance adjustment," Staff Reports 255, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj, 2016. "Long-Run Dynamic Relationship between FDI and Domestic Investment in GCC Countries," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 59(2), pages 16-43.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imported inflation; Exchange rate pass-through; ARDL model; Bounds testing technique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:239-252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.