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The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

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  • Mohsin S. Khan

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

The creation of a monetary union has been the primary objective of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members since the early 1980s. Significant progress has already been made in regional economic integration: The GCC countries have largely unrestricted intraregional mobility of goods, labor, and capital; regulation of the banking sector is being harmonized; and in 2008 the countries established a common market. Further, most of the convergence criteria established for entry into a monetary union have already been achieved. In establishing a monetary union, however, the GCC countries must decide on the exchange rate regime for the single currency. The countries' use of a US dollar peg as an external anchor for monetary policy has so far served them well, but rising inflation and differing economic cycles from the United States in recent years has raised the question of whether the dollar peg remains the best policy. Mohsin Khan considers the costs and benefits of alternative exchange rate regimes for the GCC. These include continued use of a dollar peg, a peg to a basket of currencies such as the SDR or simply the dollar and euro, a peg to the export price of oil, and a managed floating exchange rate. In light of the structural characteristics of the GCC countries, Khan considers the dollar peg the best option following the establishment of a GCC monetary union. The peg has proved credible and is easy to administer. If further international integration in trade, services, and asset markets makes a higher degree of exchange rate flexibility desirable in the future, implementing a basket peg could provide this flexibility. Regardless, the choice of exchange rate regime for the GCC countries need not be permanent: The countries could initially peg the single GCC currency to the US dollar and then move to a more flexible regime as their policy needs and institutions develop.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsin S. Khan, 2009. "The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Working Paper Series WP09-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp09-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brad Setser, 2007. "The Case for Exchange Rate Flexibility in Oil-Exporting Economies," Policy Briefs PB07-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saiki, Ayako, 2002. "A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 417-448.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magdaléna DRASTICHOVÁ, 2009. "Current and future monetary cooperation with a focus on the possible monetary union of Gulf Cooperation Council," Proceedings of FIKUSZ '09,in: László Áron Kóczy (ed.), Proceedings of FIKUSZ '09, pages 57-69 Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2014. "Industry co-movement and cross-listing: Do home country factors matter?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 96-110.
    3. Rosmy Jean Louis & Mohamed Osman & Faruk Balli, 2010. "Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1898-1922, December.
    4. Bassem M Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Russell C Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions; Method and Application to the planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/184, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Syed Basher, 2015. "Regional initiative in the Gulf Arab States: the search for a common currency," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 185-202, June.
    6. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    7. Damyana Bakardzhieva & Russell Krueger & Bassem Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti, 2011. "Essay on Establishing Conversion Values for the Planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union," Working Papers 632, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    8. Julius Agbor Agbor, 2013. "The Future of the CEMAC CFA FRANC," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17.
    9. Hend Al-Sheikh & S. Nuri Erbas, 2012. "The Oil Curse and Labor Markets: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 697, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    10. Jay, Squalli, 2011. "Is the dollar peg suitable for the largest economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 496-512, October.
    11. Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; monetary unions; Gulf Cooperation Council;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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