IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sas/wpaper/20126.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investigating Long-Run Demand for Broad Money in the Gulf Arab Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Basher

    (Qatar Central Bank)

  • Stefano Fachin

    (Universita' di Roma "La Sapienza")

Abstract

We estimate the long-run demand for broad money at the Gulf Cooperation Council area level (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) and at single country level over the 1980-2009 period. Applying time series and panel econometric tests, we first document the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship for money demand – both nationally and regionally. The estimated income- and interest elasticities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide a validation for the Baumol-Tobin version of the inventory analysis of the transactions demand for money; while income elasticities in the other GCC economies reflect portfolio demand more strongly than transaction demand with a generally lower interest rate (semi-)elasticities. We discuss how the movements in income velocity can reconcile the varying elasticities documented across the six countries. The different pooled estimators of the regional money demand produce estimated income elasticities in the neighborhood of unity, while interest rate elasticities tend to be smaller than -0.2.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Basher & Stefano Fachin, 2012. "Investigating Long-Run Demand for Broad Money in the Gulf Arab Countries," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2012/6, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    • Handle: RePEc:sas:wpaper:20126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dss.uniroma1.it/RePec/sas/wpaper/20126_Basher_Fachin.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul, 2005. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 797-820.
    2. Anonymous, 1952. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 446-447, August.
    3. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Hamori, Naoko, 2008. "Demand for money in the Euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 274-284, September.
    4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    5. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    6. Abbas Valadkhani, 2008. "Long- and Short-Run Determinants of the Demand for Money in the Asian-Pacific Countries: An Empirical Panel Investigation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 77-90, May.
    7. Nasri Harb, 2004. "Money demand function: a heterogeneous panel application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 551-555.
    8. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in panel equations with cross-section linkages," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-18.
    9. Mohsin S. Khan, 2010. "The GCC Monetary Union: Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    11. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    12. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356, Elsevier.
    13. Syed Abul Basher & Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy, 2012. "Country heterogeneity and long-run determinants of inflation in the Gulf Arab states," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(2), pages 170-203, June.
    14. Anonymous, 1952. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 644-646, November.
    15. Anonymous, 1952. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 121-125, February.
    16. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2008. "Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15.
    17. Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa & Alkhater, Khalid Rashid & Basher, Syed Abul, 2014. "Pre- versus post-crisis central banking in Qatar," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 330-352.
    18. Maravall, Agustín, 1992. "Missing observations and additive outliers in time series models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2888, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    19. Paresh Narayan & Seema Narayan & Vinod Mishra, 2009. "Estimating money demand functions for South Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 685-696, June.
    20. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration study of the long-run relationship between Savings and Investments in the OECD economies, 1970-2007," MPRA Paper 25873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    22. Bai, Jushan & Kao, Chihwa & Ng, Serena, 2009. "Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 82-99, April.
    23. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2012. "A direct test of the endogeneity of money: Implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 577-585.
    24. Willem H. Buiter, 2010. "Economic, Political and Institutional Prerequisites for Monetary Union Among the Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Chang, Yoosoon & Nguyen, Chi Mai, 2012. "Residual based tests for cointegration in dependent panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 504-520.
    26. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2008. "Mixed signals among tests for panel cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 128-136, January.
    27. Darrat, Ali F. & Al-Sowaidi, Saif S., 2009. "Financial progress and the stability of long-run money demand: Implications for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 124-131, August.
    28. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A simple sieve bootstrap range test for poolability in dependent cointegrated panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 154-156.
    29. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Money demand and disinflation in selected CEECs during the accession to the EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1259-1267.
    30. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "Money demand function versus monetary integration: Revisiting panel cointegration among GCC countries," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 85-93.
    31. ,, 2009. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 8, number 9780199563234.
    32. Jamil Tahir, 1995. "Recent Developments in Demand for Money Issues: Survey of Theory and Evidence with Reference to Arab Countries," Working Papers 9530, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 1995.
    33. Zaidi, Iqbal, 1990. "Monetary coordination among the gulf cooperation council countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 759-768, May.
    34. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    35. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    36. Ahmed AlKholifey & Ali Alreshan, 2010. "GCC monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the SARB/IFC seminar on "Economic and financial convergence en route to regional economic integration: experience, prospects and statis, volume 32, pages 17-51, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series," Working Papers 9808, Banco de España.
    38. Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries," IMF Working Papers 2012/132, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    2. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    3. Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
    4. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Asymmetrical effects of real exchange rate on the money demand in Saudi Arabia: A non-linear ARDL approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    5. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.
    6. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Stability of Money Demand Function in the SAARC Region: A Panel Co-Integration Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    2. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
    3. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "OLong-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0237, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. repec:zbw:rwirep:0237 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Samih Antoine Azar & Fadi Asrawi & Emad Gharzuddine, 2017. "Economic Integration in the Six Middle Eastern Gulf Countries: A Look from the Perspective of Money Demand," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(3), pages 189-218, December.
    6. Dobnik, Frauke, 2011. "Long-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 237, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    8. Dierk Herzer & Julian Donaubauer, 2018. "The long-run effect of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity in developing countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 309-342, March.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-32, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    11. Saten Kumar & Mamta B. Chowdhury & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1767-1776, May.
    12. Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets curves: New evidence on both panel and country-level CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 263-271.
    13. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    14. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    15. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    16. Syed Basher, 2015. "Regional initiative in the Gulf Arab States: the search for a common currency," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(2), pages 185-202, June.
    17. repec:hae:wpaper:2013-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Carl S. Bonham & Peter Fuleky & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201303, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    19. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    20. John Paul Dunne & Elizabeth Kasekende, 2018. "Financial Innovation and Money Demand: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(4), pages 428-448, December.
    21. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.
    22. Dierk Herzer, 2017. "The Long-run Relationship Between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 462-487, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; Endogenous money; Gulf monetary union; Panel cointegration; Poolability.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sas:wpaper:20126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefano Fachin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ddrosit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.