IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/scciec/qt01g0h0q2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Chinn, Menzie
  • Fujii, Eiji

Abstract

The status of real and financial integration of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan is investigated using monthly data on one-month interbank rates, exchange rates, and prices. Specifically, the degree of integration is assessed based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. In particular, China and Hong Kong appear to have experienced significant increases in integration during the sample period. It is also found that exchange rate variability plays a major role in determining the variability of deviations from these parity conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt01g0h0q2, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:qt01g0h0q2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/01g0h0q2.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "Financial liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Implications for real interest rate linkages," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 36-48, March.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Economic growth and stationarity of real exchange rates: Evidence from some fast-growing Asian countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 61-76, May.
    3. Cheung, Ying-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian, 1995. "Pacific-Basin stock markets and real activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 143-143, May.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
    5. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-47.
    6. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-1459, Nov.-Dec..
    7. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-384, April.
    8. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
    9. Marcus Noland & Li-Gang Liu & Sherman Robinson, 1998. "Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa56.
    10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of a Modified Dickey-Fuller Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 411-419, August.
    11. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "Some evidence on the international inequality of real interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 189-208, June.
    12. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
    13. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
    14. Shu-ki Tsang, 2002. "Optimum Currency Area for Mainland HCina and Hong Kong? Empirical Tests," Working Papers 162002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Kumhof, Michael, 2001. "International Capital Mobility in Emerging Markets: New Evidence from Daily Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 626-640, November.
    17. Chang, Chun & Fleisher, Belton M. & Parker, Elliott, 2001. "The impact of China's entry into the WTO: Overview," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 319-322.
    18. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 02/99, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Xu, Yingfeng, 2000. "China's exchange rate policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 262-277.
    22. Poncet, Sandra, 2003. "Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
    23. Fujii, Eiji, 2002. "Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments in the Aftermath of the Asian Crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, January.
    24. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kano, Takashi, 1997. "International Price Linkage within a Region: The Case of East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 643-666, December.
    25. Chinn, Menzie D., 2000. "Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 101-126, September.
    26. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    27. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486.
    28. WEI, Shang-Jin & Liu, Ligang & Wang, Zhi & Woo, Wing T., 2000. "The China money puzzle: will devaluation of the yuan help or hurt the Hong Kong dollar?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 171-188, December.
    29. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    30. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    31. Wei, Shang-Jin & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "A "Greater China" trade Bloc?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 179-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chow, Hwee Kwan, 2010. "Asian Tigers' Choices: An Overview," ADBI Working Papers 238, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Maveyraud-Tricoire, Samuel & Rous, Philippe, 2009. "RIP and the shift toward a monetary union: Looking for a "euro effect" by a structural break analysis with panel data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 336-350, April.
    3. Kin‐Yip Ho & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012. "Dynamic Linkages among Financial Markets in the Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 500-523, April.
    4. Chan, Tze-Haw & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2012. "Financial Integration between China and Asia Pacific Trading Partners: Parities Evidence from the First- and Second-generation Panel Tests," MPRA Paper 37801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2006. "The Chinese economies in global context: The integration process and its determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 128-153, March.
    7. T. K. Jayaraman & Huay-Huay Lee & Hock-Ann Lee, 2006. "Regional Economic Integration in the Pacific: An Empirical Study," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 177-192.
    8. repec:kap:fmktpm:v:32:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11408-018-0308-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alex Luiz FERREIRA, "undated". "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," EcoMod2004 330600051, EcoMod.
    10. Ramiah, Vikash & Cheng, Ka Yeung & Orriols, Julien & Naughton, Tony & Hallahan, Terrence, 2011. "Contrarian investment strategies work better for dually-traded stocks: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 140-156, January.
    11. repec:wsi:ceprxx:v:03:y:2014:i:02:n:s1793969014500095 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zohreh Shirani Fakhr & Seyed Komail Tayebi, 2009. "Determinants of Financial Integration in the East Asia-Pacific Region," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 14(1), pages 155-173, spring.
    13. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    15. Soyoung Kim & Sunghyun H. Kim, 2013. "International Capital Flows, Boom-Bust Cycles, And Business Cycle Synchronization In The Asia Pacific Region," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(1), pages 191-211, January.
    16. Yeh, Kuo-chun & Ho, Tai-kuang, 2012. "Magnitude and volatility of Taiwan's net foreign assets against Mainland China: 1981–2009," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 720-728.
    17. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
    18. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2010. "Asian Tigers’ Choices : An Overview," Trade Working Papers 21879, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    19. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, "undated". "Estimating China�s de-facto capital account convertibility," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0205, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    20. Joao Ricardo Faria & Andre Varella Mollick & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "China's Exports and the Oil Price," Studies in Economics 0812, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    21. Lee, Chin, 2010. "Purchasing power parity and free trade area," MPRA Paper 40431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2011. "A structural modeling of exchange rate, prices and interest rates between Malaysia-China in the liberalization era," MPRA Paper 32955, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncovered interest parity; real interest parity; purchasing power parity; exchange rates; capital mobility; market integration;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:qt01g0h0q2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ciucsus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.