IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Real interest rate parity hypothesis in post-Soviet countries: Evidence from unit root tests

  • Öge Güney, Pelin
  • Hasanov, Mübariz

In this paper we investigate the real interest parity hypothesis for ten post-Soviet transition countries with respect to Russia, the USA and Germany. For this purpose, we employ conventional linear unit root tests as well as a nonlinear unit root test developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) to examine stationarity properties of real interest rate differentials of the transition countries vis-à-vis Russia, the USA, and Germany. The results provide evidence in favor of real interest rate parity for most of the series, especially when possible nonlinearities in the adjustment process are taken into account.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 36 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 120-129

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:120-129
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Chinn, Menzie D & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1995. "Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the USA or Japan?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 801-821, December.
  2. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ucar, Nuri & Omay, Tolga, 2009. "Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 5-8, July.
  4. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
  5. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2006. "Are international real interest rate linkages characterized by asymmetric adjustments?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 384-396, October.
  6. André Farber & Eugene Fama, 1979. "Money, bonds and foreign exchange," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/11356, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  8. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  10. Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559.
  11. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Arghyrou, Michael G & Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2007. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  14. DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 2003-24, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  15. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  16. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
  17. FERREIRA Alex Luiz & LEON-LEDESMA Miguel A., . "Does the Real Interest Parity Hypothesis Hold? Evidence for Developed and Emerging Markets," EcoMod2003 330700053, EcoMod.
  18. Phylaktis, Kate, 1999. "Capital market integration in the Pacific Basin region: an impulse response analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 267-287, February.
  19. Hasanov, Mübariz & Omay, Tolga, 2008. "Monetary policy rules in practice: Re-examining the case of Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(16), pages 4309-4318.
  20. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  21. Cavaglia, Stefano, 1992. "The persistence of real interest differentials: A Kalman filtering approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 429-443, June.
  22. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  23. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  24. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas & Xanthakis, Emmanuel, 1997. "Integration of international capital markets: further evidence from EMS and non-EMS membership," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 277-287, October.
  25. Holmes, Mark J., 2002. "Does long-run real interest parity hold among EU countries? Some new panel data evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 733-746.
  26. Lawrence G. Goldberg & James R. Lothian & John Okunev, 2003. "Has International Financial Integration Increased?," International Finance 0311004, EconWPA.
  27. Mark J. Holmes & Ping Wang, 2008. "Real Convergence and the EU Accession Countries," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 215-236, December.
  28. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal Across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," NBER Working Papers 1048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Interest Rate Parity: Some New Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 255-74, October.
  31. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
  32. Oli Havrylyshyn & Hassan Al-Atrash, 1998. "Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 98/22, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
  34. Crowder, William J., 1995. "Covered interest parity and international capital market efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-132.
  35. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  36. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2009. "Purchasing power parity in Central and Eastern European countries: an analysis of unit roots and nonlinearities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 87-94.
  37. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2007. "Testing PPP in the non-linear STAR framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 104-110, January.
  38. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2010. "Further Evidence on the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis in Central and East European Countries: Unit Roots and Nonlinearities," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(6), pages 22-39, November.
  39. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  40. Al Awad, Mouawiya & Goodwin, Barry K., 1998. "Dynamic linkages among real interest rates in international capital markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 881-907, December.
  41. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  42. Erdinc Telatar & Mubariz Hasanov, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity in transition economies: evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 157-173.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:120-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.