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Output Gaps and Inflation in Mainland China

Author

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  • Stefan Gerlach

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Wensheng Peng

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng, 2005. "Output Gaps and Inflation in Mainland China," Working Papers 202005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    2. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine," Development and Comp Systems 0310001, EconWPA.
    3. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
    5. Borensztein, Eduardo & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1996. "Accounting for China's Growth Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 224-228, May.
    6. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
    7. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    8. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
    9. S. E Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 97/135, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    2. Mehrotra, Aaron & Peltonen, Tuomas & Santos Rivera, Alvaro, 2010. "Modelling inflation in China--A regional perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 237-255, June.
    3. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March.
    4. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    5. Jeffrey Zax, 2014. "Housing allocations, imputed rents and inequality in urban China," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1682, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Nagayasu, Jun, 2009. "Regional Inflation in China," MPRA Paper 24722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2009. "Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 404-418, June.
    8. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling China Inflation Persistence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 89-110, May.
    9. Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 263-271, November.
    10. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:191-204 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Scheibe, Jörg & Vines, David, 2005. "A Phillips Curve for China," CEPR Discussion Papers 4957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    13. Antonin Rusek, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics in New EU Member States: The Czech Case," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 191-204, May.
    14. Osman, Mohammad & Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?," MPRA Paper 11612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2012. "Multivariate model-based gap measures and a new Phillips curve for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-70.
    16. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.
    17. Matthieu Bussière & Arnaud Mehl, 2008. "China's and India's roles in global trade and finance - twin titans for the new millennium?," Occasional Paper Series 80, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; Phillips curve; China; omitted variab les;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance

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