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Output gaps and inflation in Mainland China

  • GERLACH, Stefan
  • Peng, Wensheng

We estimate output gaps using three methods for Mainland China on annual data spanning 1982-2003. The estimates are similar and appear to co-move with inflation. Standard Phillips curves, however, do not fit the data well. This may reflect the omission of some important variable(s) such as the effect of price deregulation, trade liberalisation and/or changes in the exchange rate regime. We reestimate the Phillips curves assuming that there is an unobserved variable that follows an AR(2) process. The modified model fits the data much better and accounts for some of the surprising features of the simple Phillips curve estimates.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 210-225

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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:210-225
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  1. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
  2. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine," Development and Comp Systems 0310001, EconWPA.
  3. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
  4. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
  5. Borensztein, Eduardo & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1996. "Accounting for China's Growth Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 224-28, May.
  6. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
  7. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
  8. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
  9. Stefan E. Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 97/135, International Monetary Fund.
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