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China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model

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  • Yin Zhang
  • Guanghua Wan

Abstract

The present paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework; namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that (i) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (ii) driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–1990, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–1996 and the post‐1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.

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  • Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:19:y:2005:i:4:p:445-469
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8381.2005.00221.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2019. "China's ‘New Normal’: Is the growth slowdown demand- or supply-driven?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    3. Gao, Xu, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting for the Chinese Economy," MPRA Paper 7050, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007.
    4. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    5. James Laurenceson & Corrine Dobson, "undated". "China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 1705, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Minchung Hsu & Junsang Lee & Min Zhao, 2020. "Economic fluctuations, volatility changes and the role of government spending in China: A structural analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 512-538, October.
    7. Min Gong & Wenpu Li, 2010. "Assessing the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 464-488, September.
    8. Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jiajing Sun & Michael Cole & Zhiyuan Huang & Shouyang Wang, 2019. "Chinese leadership: Provincial perspectives on promotion and performance," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 37(4), pages 750-772, June.
    10. You, Kefei & Solomon, Offiong Helen, 2015. "China's outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment: An industrial level analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 249-260.

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