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China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis

The path to emerging as the world’s second largest economy (in PPP terms) has not been a smooth one. This paper seeks to provide a detailed chronology of China’s business cycles since 1979. It also considers whether their volatility has changed over time, and how their volatility compares with those in the world’s largest and third largest economies, the U.S and Japan. In the process, several puzzles relating to China’s business cycles are observed that warrant further research attention.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series EAERG Discussion Paper Series with number 1705.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:17
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  1. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Gang Gong & Justin Yifu Lin, 2005. "Deflationary Expansion : an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China," Macroeconomics Working Papers 21959, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  4. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  5. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2003. "Quarterly Real GDP Estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a Forecast Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers wp0404, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  6. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
  7. Hoe Ee Khor, 1991. "China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's," IMF Working Papers 91/85, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Harm Zebregs & Wanda Tseng, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment in China: Some Lessons for Other Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-dependent synchronization of growth cycles between Japan and East Asia," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  11. Gunter, Frank R., 2004. "Capital flight from China: 1984-2001," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 63-85, January.
  12. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
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