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China’s business cycles since 1979: a chronology and comparative analysis

The path to emerging as the world’s second largest economy (in PPP terms) has not been a smooth one. This paper seeks to provide a detailed chronology of China’s business cycles since 1979. It also considers whether their volatility has changed over time, and how their volatility compares with those in the world’s largest and third largest economies, the U.S and Japan. In the process, several puzzles relating to China’s business cycles are observed that warrant further research attention.

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File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/eaerg/dp/EAERG_DP17.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series EAERG Discussion Paper Series with number 1705.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeaer:17
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  1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  2. Khor, Hoe Ee, 1992. "China--macroeconomic cycles in the 1980S," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 173-194.
  3. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-dependent synchronization of growth cycles between Japan and East Asia," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
  5. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  6. Gunter, Frank R., 2004. "Capital flight from China: 1984-2001," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 63-85, January.
  7. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
  8. Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
  9. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD-AS Model ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
  10. Harm Zebregs & Wanda Tseng, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment in China; Some Lessons for Other Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  12. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447.
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