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Deflationary Expansion : an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China

  • Gang Gong

    (China Center for Economic Research)

  • Justin Yifu Lin

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investing and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth. This expression is consistent with the recent variables. The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current institutional environment of China.

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File URL: http://saber.eaber.org/node/21959
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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21959.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:21959
Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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  1. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Soft budget constraint and inflation cycles: a positive model of the macro-dynamics in China during transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 437-457, April.
  2. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  3. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  4. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  5. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.
  7. Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 1998. "A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1998-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
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