IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/epa/cepawp/1998-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules

Author

Abstract

In the framework of a Keynesian based monetary macromodel we study the implications of alternative monetary policy rules. Our monetary macromodel exhibits the following features: asset market clearing, disequilibrium in the product and labor markets, sluggish price and quantity adjustments, two Phillips curves for the wage and price dynamics and expectations formulation which represents a combination of adaptive and forward looking behavior. Two alternative monetary policy rules for controlling inflation are considered: the monetary authority (1) targeting monetary aggregates or (2) targeting the interest rate. For those two policy rules the model's dynamic features are explored given certain parameter constellations. Then the key parameters of the model variants are estimated through GMM and single equation estimations employing US time series data 1960.1-1995.1. Stochastic simulations are performed and contrasted with US macroeconomic data in terms of standard deviations of macro variables as well as their cross-correlation to output. The model can be viewed as an alternative to equilibrium macromodels in fitting macroeconomic data. With respect to out two monetary regimes it seems that in terms of volatility the model variant with the second policy rule gives a better fit whereas for cross-correlation with output the variant with the first policy rule performs better.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 1998. "A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:1998-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/scepa/publications/workingpapers/1998/cepa0202.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern97-1.
    2. H. Rose, 1967. "On the Non-Linear Theory of the Employment Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(2), pages 153-173.
    3. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    4. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 219-239, March.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, April.
    7. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:3:p:355-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1997. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Semmler, Will & Gong, Gang, 1996. "Estimating parameters of real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 301-325, September.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: I The Starting Model," Working Paper Series 93, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Carsten Köper & Willi Semmler, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: VI Substitution, Money-Holdings, Wealth-Effects and Further Extensions," Working Paper Series 98, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Flaschel, Peter & Gong, Gang & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "A Keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 101-136, September.
    4. Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    2. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    3. Dominique Pepin, 2004. "The role of the "Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate" in monetary policy," Working Papers hal-00965020, HAL.
    4. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Olivei, Giovanni & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2010. "Wage-setting patterns and monetary policy: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 785-802, October.
    6. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October.
    8. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    9. Wieland, Volker & Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    11. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
    12. Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2011. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and staggered price and wage determination in a model with firm-specific labor," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 579-603, April.
    13. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    15. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    16. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    17. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    18. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    19. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, February.
    20. Hanson Michael S. & Kapinos Pavel S., 2008. "Endogenous Persistence and the Performance of Inertial Targeting Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:1998-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bridget Fisher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.