IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/28226.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Cheng

Abstract

Both theoretical predictions of Keynesian view and a large body of empirical studies on developed countries suggest that business cycle fluctuations can be partially smoothed by counter-cyclical fiscal policies. Our paper extends this strand of literature by considering the nexus between output fluctuations and government size in the context of Chinese fiscal federalism. Using a sample of 29 Chinese provinces for the period of 1994-2007, we fail to provide consistent evidence for the stabilizing effect of fiscal policies. In particular, we find that under the tax assignment system (fen shui zhi), neither the central government’s fiscal transfers nor the provincial budgetary and extra-budgetary revenues help reduce economic volatility. Such results are shown to be robust across different model specifications, volatility measures and estimation techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Cheng, 2010. "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability: Sub-National Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 28226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28226/1/MPRA_paper_28226.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Debrun & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir, 2008. "Government size and output volatility- should we forsake automatic stabilisation?," Working Papers 47, Bruegel.
    2. Yin Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2005. "China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 445-469, December.
    3. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    4. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
    5. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael & Fatas, Antonio, 2008. "The stabilizing role of government size," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-593, February.
    6. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January.
    7. Mr. S. E Oppers, 1997. "Macroeconomic Cycles in China," IMF Working Papers 1997/135, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Yingyi Qian & Barry R. Weingast, 1996. "China's transition to markets: market-preserving federalism, chinese style," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 149-185.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    10. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    11. Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
    12. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    13. Zhang, Tao & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 221-240, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kashif Munir & Nimra Riaz, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Macroecomonic Stability in South Asian Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 228(1), pages 13-33, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    2. Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2013. "Exogenous volatility and the size of government in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 254-266.
    3. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2013. "The impact of financial openness on the size of utility-enhancing government," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-56.
    4. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    6. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    7. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Mr. Xavier Debrun & André Sapir, 2008. "Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization?," IMF Working Papers 2008/122, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Martin Iseringhausen & Hauke Vierke, 2019. "What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 849-867, August.
    9. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Kock, Jan & Peichl, Andreas & Wehrhöfer, Nils & Wittneben, Christian, 2014. "Abschlussbericht zu Forschungsvorhaben fe 5/14: "Automatic stabilizers in the Eurozone: Analysis of their effectiveness at the member state and euro area level and in international comparison&quo," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 111444, September.
    10. Janiak, Alexandre & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2016. "Towards a quantitative theory of automatic stabilizers: The role of demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 35-49.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    13. Stojanovikj, Martin, 2022. "Government size, inflation targeting and business cycle volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Markus Eller & Jarko Fidrmuc & Zuzana Fungáčová, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Regional Output Volatility: Evidence from Russia," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1849-1862, November.
    15. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael & Fatas, Antonio, 2008. "The stabilizing role of government size," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-593, February.
    16. Steven A. Symansky & Thomas Baunsgaard, 2009. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/23, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Irene Brunetti & Davide fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena, 2013. "An Index of Growth Rate Volatility: Methodology and an Application to European Regions," Discussion Papers 2013/169, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Herzog, Bodo, 2006. "Coordination of fiscal and monetary policy in CIS-countries: A theory of optimum fiscal area?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 256-274, June.
    19. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    20. Rieth, Malte & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria-Grazia, 2016. "Personal income tax progressivity and output volatility: Evidence from OECD countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 968-996.
    21. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2015. "The net foreign asset position and government size," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 130-148.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; government size; fiscal federalism; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.