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Towards a quantitative theory of automatic stabilizers: the role of demographics

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  • Alexandre Janiaka
  • Paulo Santos Monteiro

Abstract

Employment volatility is larger for young and old workers than for prime aged. At the same time, in economies with high tax rates, the share of total hours supplied by the young/old workers is smaller. These two observations imply a negative correlation between government size (measured by the share of taxes in total output) and aggregate output volatility. This paper assesses in a calibrated heterogenous agent, overlapping generations model the quantitative importance of these two facts to account for the empirical relation between government size and macroeconomic stability. The baseline calibration accounts correctly for the quantitative relation between output volatility and government size observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Janiaka & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2014. "Towards a quantitative theory of automatic stabilizers: the role of demographics," Discussion Papers 14/23, Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:14/23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Automatic Stabilizers; Distortionary Taxes; Demographics;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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