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What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?

  • He, Qing
  • Tai-Leung Chong, Terence
  • Shi, Kang

This paper investigates the sources of economic fluctuations in China since its reform that started in 1978. Using the framework of a standard neoclassical open economy model with time-varying frictions (wedge), we study the relative contribution of the efficiency, labor, investment and foreign debt wedges to the business cycles of China. The business accounting procedure suggests that productivity best explains the behavior of aggregate economic variables in China throughout the period of 1978-2006. The labor wedge plays a major role in explaining the movement of labor force. The foreign debt wedge and investment wedge primarily affect the composition of output, but their role in explaining the movement of output is modest. Our results suggest that the focus of government policies should be to combat the problems of inefficient factor utilization and labor market rigidity.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 650-661

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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:650-661
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  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004. "Business Cycle Accounting," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000560, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
  4. John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2004. "Inequality Change in China and (Hukou) Labour Mobility Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 10683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  6. Kuijs, Louis & Wang, Tao, 2005. "China's pattern of growth : moving to sustainability and reducing inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3767, The World Bank.
  7. Loren Brandt & Xiaodong Zhu, 2000. "Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 422-451, April.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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