IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3767.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's pattern of growth : moving to sustainability and reducing inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Kuijs, Louis
  • Wang, Tao

Abstract

The authors study the sources and pattern of China's impressive economic growth over the past 25 years and show that key issues currently of concern to policymakers-widening inequality, rural poverty, and resource intensity-are to a large extent rooted in China's growth strategy, and resolving them requires a rebalancing of policies. Using both macroeconomic level and sector data and analyses, the authors extend the growth accounting framework to decompose the sources of labor productivity growth. They find that growth of industrial production, led by a massive investment effort that boosted the capital/labor ratio, has been the single most important factor driving GDP and overall labor productivity growth since the early 1990s. The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture has been limited, and, hence, contributed only marginally to overall labor productivity growth. The productivity gap between agriculture and the rest of the economy has continued to widen, leading to increased rural-urban income inequality. Looking ahead, the authors calibrate two alternative scenarios. They show that continuing with the current growth pattern would further increase already high investment and saving needs to unsustainable levels, lower urban employment growth, and widen the rural-urban income gap. Instead, reducing subsidies to industry and investment, encouraging the development of the services industry, and reducing barriers to labor mobility would result in a more balanced growth with an investment-to-GDP ratio that is consistent with the medium-term saving trend, faster growth in urban employment, and a substantial reduction in the income gap between rural and urban residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuijs, Louis & Wang, Tao, 2005. "China's pattern of growth : moving to sustainability and reducing inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3767, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3767
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/11/08/000016406_20051108154427/Rendered/PDF/wps3767.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2004. "Inequality Change in China and (Hukou) Labour Mobility Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 10683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    3. Chow, Gregory C., 1993. "How and why China succeeded in her economic reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 117-128.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2018. "The regional effects of macroeconomic shocks in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 139-154.
    2. Yinhua Mai & Xiujian Peng & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2014. "The economic effects of facilitating the flow of rural workers to urban employment in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 619-642, August.
    3. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, September.
    4. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007. "How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
    5. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2006. "Neither a borrower nor a lender: Does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 943-971, July.
    6. Di Wu & Peng Gao & Jichang Dong, 2012. "Impact Of Subsidy On Low-Rent Housing Lessees' Welfare In China," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 643-660.
    7. Mylène Gaulard, 2010. "Baixa da taxa de lucro e crescimento chinês ," Post-Print halshs-01811556, HAL.
    8. He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
    9. Wang Dewen, 2010. "Can Social Security Boost Domestic Consumption in the People’s Republic of China?," Working Papers id:2490, eSocialSciences.
    10. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2016. "Output Shocks In China: Do The Distributional Effects Depend On The Regional Source?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 16-20, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuijs, Louis, 2006. "How will China's saving-investment balance evolve ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3958, The World Bank.
    2. Ding Lu, 2002. "Sectoral Factor Reallocation And Productivity Growth: Recent Trends In The Chinese Economy," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 95-111, December.
    3. Christopher Candelaria & Mary C. Daly & Galina Hale, 2009. "Beyond Kuznets: persistent regional inequality in China," Working Paper Series 2009-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Arvind Virmani, 2009. "China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons for Democratic Developing Countries," Working Papers id:1899, eSocialSciences.
    5. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007. "How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
    6. Gagnon, Jason & Xenogiani, Theodora & Xing, Chunbing, 2009. "Are all migrants really worse off in urban labour markets: new empirical evidence from China," MPRA Paper 16109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kayode, M.O. & Odusola, Ayodele, 2001. "Economic Development Management in Nigeria: Dynamics, Dialectics and Outcomes," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 307338, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    8. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2006. "Neither a borrower nor a lender: Does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 943-971, July.
    9. Sima Siami-Namini, 2017. "China's Economy and the Global Financial Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 259-265.
    10. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Kayode, M.O. & Odusola, A.F., 2001. "Economic Development Management in Nigeria: Dynamics, Dialectics and Outcomes," UNDP Africa Research Discussion Papers 267026, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    12. Brueckner, Jan K. & Lall, Somik V., 2015. "Cities in Developing Countries," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1399-1455, Elsevier.
    13. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
    14. Hung, Shiu-Wan, 2009. "Development and innovation in the IT industries of India and China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 29-41.
    15. Almas Heshmati & Biwei Su, 2013. "Development and Sources of Labor Productivity in Chinese Provinces," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-30.
    16. Gennady Bilych, 2013. "Democratic Changes and Economic Growth," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 461-486, June.
    17. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
    19. Lindbeck, Assar, 2006. "Economic-Social Interaction during China’s Transition," Working Paper Series 680, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/016, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Labor Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Municipal Financial Management; Achieving Shared Growth;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3767. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.