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China: Coming to Grips with the New Global Player

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  • Horst Siebert

Abstract

This paper analyses China's economic performance in the last 25 years and discusses its prospect for growth in the future. Exports and investment have been the two driving forces for the high annual GDP growth rates. FDI plays an important role. However, structural issues such as the loss-making state-owned firms and the fragile banking industry have to be solved. Monetary policy is complicated by the accumulation of reserves which, however, provide an insurance for the fragile banking system. Property rights, a crucial element in transforming a communist society, are far from being clearly developed. Major policy issues in the future include the correction of the distorted growth process and of the institutional deficits, especially with respect to the rule of law and the lack of democracy. Copyright 2007 The Author Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .

Suggested Citation

  • Horst Siebert, 2007. "China: Coming to Grips with the New Global Player," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 893-922, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:6:p:893-922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lindbeck, Assar, 2006. "An Essay on Economic Reforms and Social Change in China," Working Paper Series 681, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    2. WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010. "China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
    3. Xiangming Li & Steven V Dunaway, 2005. "Estimating China's "Equilibrium" Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 05/202, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eswar S Prasad, 2004. "China's Growth and Integration into the World Economy; Prospects and Challenges," IMF Occasional Papers 232, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Siebert, Horst, 2008. "An international rule system to avoid financial instability," Kiel Working Papers 1461, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Horst Siebert, 2007. "China - opportunities of and constraints on the new global player," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 52-61, January.
    3. Maria Jesus Herrerias, 2010. "The Causal Relationship between Equipment Investment and Infrastructures on Economic Growth in China," Frontiers of Economics in China, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(4), pages 509-526, December.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/304, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kishor Sharma & Wei Wang, 2014. "Foreign Investment and Vertical Specialisation: An Analysis of Emerging Trends in Chinese Exports," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401580, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Pearson, Joseph & Viviers, Wilma & Cuyvers, Ludo & Naudé, Wim, 2010. "Identifying export opportunities for South Africa in the southern engines: A DSM approach," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 345-359, August.
    7. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2011. "Imports and growth in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2811-2819.
    8. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo, 2009. "The Economic Psychology of Stock Market Bubbles in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 667-691, May.
    9. Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Excess Liquidity, Inflation and the Yuan Appreciation: What Can China Learn from Recent History?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 998-1018, July.
    10. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    11. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.

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