IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v32y2009i7p998-1018.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Excess Liquidity, Inflation and the Yuan Appreciation: What Can China Learn from Recent History?

Author

Listed:
  • Chengsi Zhang

Abstract

This paper analyses the issues of excess liquidity, inflation and the exchange rate appreciation currently evolving in China. In mapping the co‐movement between excess liquidity and inflation and developing a dynamic model, the paper shows that excess liquidity, ignited by dramatic capital inflows, is a significant driver for consumer price inflation in China during the last decade. In addition, the article compares the dynamic paths of inflation and interest rates between China and the United States and reveals marked changes in their differentials over recent years. Associating these findings with the evolving appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, the paper advises a slowdown in the rate of RMB appreciation. Instead of quick appreciation, the paper proposes more flexibility in the RMB exchange rate regime combined with alternative capital control measures to rein‐in excess liquidity and curb ongoing inflation in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengsi Zhang, 2009. "Excess Liquidity, Inflation and the Yuan Appreciation: What Can China Learn from Recent History?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 998-1018, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:32:y:2009:i:7:p:998-1018
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01191.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01191.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01191.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony J. Makin, 2007. "Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 89-102, May.
    2. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, March.
    3. Chengsi Zhang, 2007. "Low Inflation, Pass‐through, and a Discrete Inflation‐targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 59-73, March.
    4. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    6. Horst Siebert, 2007. "China: Coming to Grips with the New Global Player," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(6), pages 893-922, June.
    7. Yan Liang, 2007. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Provide Desirable Development Finance? The Case of China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 104-120, March.
    8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    9. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, March.
    10. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Motomichi Ikawa, 2009. "Reform Of The International Monetary System Based On Special Drawing Rights And Its Implications For Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 668-681, December.
    2. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
    3. Zongxin Qian, 2011. "Global Imbalance, Excess Liquidity and Financial Risk in China," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Huang Yiping & Wang Xun & Hua Xiuping, 2010. "What Determine China’s Inflation?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22770, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Pham, Tra Thi Thu & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Nguyen, Binh Thanh, 2020. "Excess liquidity and net interest margins: Evidence from Vietnamese banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Wim Meeusen, 2011. "Introduction and Outline," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Nilanjan Banik & Khanindra Ch. Das, 2014. "The Location Substitution Effect: Does it Apply for China?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 59-75, March.
    8. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese Banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-72.
    9. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    10. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2013. "The impact of excess reserves beyond precautionary levels on Bank Lending Channels in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 358-377.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    2. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    3. Chengsi Zhang & Hong Pang, 2008. "Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997–2007," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    5. Kang-Soek LEE, 2010. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 165, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Hoffmann, Andreas & Schnabl, Gunther, 2016. "Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 855-873.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime [‘Working with the IMF to strengthen exchange rate surveillance’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 576-627.
    8. Schnabl Gunther, 2013. "Die japanischen Lehren für die europäische Krise," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 62(1), pages 3-22, April.
    9. Yuanquan Chen, 2008. "Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 63-82, September.
    10. Yoonbai Kim & Gil Kim, 2012. "The Renminbi Debate: A Review of Issues and Search for Resolution," Chapters, in: Jehoon Park & T. J. Pempel & Geng Xiao (ed.), Asian Responses to the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. McKinnon Ronald I, 2006. "China's New Exchange Rate Policy: Will China Follow Japan into a Liquidity Trap?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(5), pages 1-7, April.
    12. Moosa, Imad A., 2011. "“Undermining the Case for a Trade War between the U.S. and China” - Una critica all’ipotesi di una guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 365-388.
    13. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2010. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 425-444, October.
    14. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    15. Robert Dixon & Zhichao Zhang & Yang Dai, 2016. "Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Measurement, Regime Shifts and Driving Forces of Change," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 875-892, November.
    16. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.
    17. Kang-Soek Lee, 2011. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2013. "Limits of Monetary Policy Autonomy and Exchange Rate Flexibility by East Asian Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 48-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    19. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    20. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2016. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1539-1557, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:32:y:2009:i:7:p:998-1018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.