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What Determine China’s Inflation?

Listed author(s):
  • Huang Yiping

    (China Center for Economic Research)

  • Wang Xun
  • Hua Xiuping

We examine determinants of inflation in China. Analyses of both yearonyear and monthonmonth growth data confirm excess liquidity, output gap, housing prices and stock prices positively affecting inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after 10 months. Effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our results suggest that output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation. Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation, but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are critical.

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File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22770
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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22770.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22770
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  1. Anthony J. Makin, 2007. "Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 89-102.
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  6. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
  7. Wensheng Peng & DicksonC. Tam & MatthewS. Yiu, 2008. "Property Market And The Macroeconomy Of Mainland China: A Cross Region Study," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 240-258, May.
  8. Hiroshi Shibuya, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium Price Index: Asset Price and Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(1), pages 95-109, February.
  9. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
  10. Chengsi Zhang & Hong Pang, 2008. "Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997-2007," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15.
  11. Yuanquan Chen, 2008. "Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 63-82.
  12. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 122-140, Supplemen.
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