IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tas/wpaper/17832.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Should ASEAN-5 Monetary Policymakers Act Pre-emptively Against Stock Market Bubbles?

Author

Abstract

Stock market rises and asset price inflation in ASEAN economies have raised the question of whether monetary authorities of these economies should act pre-emptively against these rising trends to prevent impending financial crises. Using a structural VECM which incorporate mixed data characteristics we examine the effects and interactions between monetary policy and stock market shocks for Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. The results suggest that monetary policy focused on the stock market detracts from price stability objectives, in particular because containing a stock market bubble may inadvertently depress output and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghavan, Mala & Dungey, Mardi, 2014. "Should ASEAN-5 Monetary Policymakers Act Pre-emptively Against Stock Market Bubbles?," Working Papers 2014-04, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:17832
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.utas.edu.au/17832/1/2014-04_Raghavan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    3. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
    6. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    8. Gulnur Muradog Lu & Kivilcim Metin & Reha Argac, 2001. "Is there a long run relationship between stock returns and monetary variables: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 641-649.
    9. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    10. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    11. Hong, Kiseok & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2010. "Crises in Asia: Recovery and Policy Responses," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 48, Asian Development Bank.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Over the Cliff: From the Subprime to the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    14. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    15. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Mala Raghavan, 2014. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the USA and Euro Area," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(291), pages 421-446, December.
    16. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    17. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    18. Mala Raghavan & Paramsothy Silvapulle & George Athanasopoulos, 2012. "Structural VAR models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis during the pre- and post-1997 Asian crisis periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3841-3856, October.
    19. Stefania D'Amico & Mira Farka, 2011. "The Fed and the Stock Market: An Identification Based on Intraday Futures Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 126-137, January.
    20. Kenneth Kuttner, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility: Should We Refill the Bernanke-Gertler Prescription?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jun 2011.
    21. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    22. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    23. Kim, Soyoung & Yang, Doo Yong, 2012. "International monetary transmission in East Asia: Floaters, non-floaters, and capital controls," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 305-316.
    24. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    25. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 122-140, Supplemen.
    26. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabián, 2012. "The use of blanket guarantees in banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1220-1248.
    27. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    28. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
    29. Toshiyuki Shimada & Ting Yang, 2011. "Challenges and Developments in the Financial Systems of the Southeast Asian Economies," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2010(2), pages 137-159.
    30. Mandelker, Gershon & Tandon, Kishore, 1985. "Common stock returns, real activity, money, and inflation: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 267-286, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2018. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 597-619, September.
    2. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    3. Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Contagion or interdependence? Comparing signed and unsigned spillovers," Working Papers 2020-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    4. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    5. Rudkin, Simon & Wong, Sen Min, 2015. "South East Asian Financial Linkages and the Changing Role of China: Insights from a Global VAR," MPRA Paper 65001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 170-178.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    2. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    3. Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
    4. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard N. Iyke & Paresh K. Narayan, 2020. "Interdependence Between Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In Asean-5 Countries," Working Papers WP/01/2020, Bank Indonesia.
    5. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    6. Rangan GUPTA & Roula INGLESI-LOTZ, 2012. "Macro Shocks and Real US Stock Prices with Special Focus on the “Great Recession”," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    7. Challe, Edouard & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2014. "Stock prices and monetary policy shocks: A general equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-66.
    8. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
    9. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    11. Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2017. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 288-304.
    12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    13. Ali K. Ozdagli, 2014. "Financial frictions and the reaction of stock prices to monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 14-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Ecenur Ugurlu‐Yildirim & Baris Kocaarslan & Beyza M. Ordu‐Akkaya, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and US stock market performance: New evidence from nonlinear cointegration analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1724-1738, April.
    16. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    17. Heimonen, Kari, 2010. "Money and equity returns in the Euro area," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 152-169.
    18. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael & Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2011. "Stock market wealth effects in an estimated DSGE model for Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 316-334.
    19. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2020. "To Lean Or Not To Lean Against An Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1958-1976, October.
    20. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2016. "Asset allocation and monetary policy: Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 309-329.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SVECM; monetary policy; stock market; ASEAN;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:17832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dutasau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oscar Pavlov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dutasau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.