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Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence

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  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis
  • Duffy, David
  • Filis, George

Abstract

A Structural VAR model is employed to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on stock market performance in Germany, UK and the US. A significant number of past studies have concentrated their attention on the relationship between monetary policy and stock market performance, yet only few on the effects of fiscal policy on stock markets. Even more we know little, if any, on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance when the two policies interact. This study aims to fill this void. Our results show that both fiscal and monetary policies influence the stock market, via either direct or indirect channels. More importantly, we find evidence that the interaction between the two policies is very important in explaining stock market developments. Thus, investors and analysts in their effort to understand the relationship between macroeconomic policies and stock market performance should consider fiscal and monetary policies in tandem rather than in isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:754-769
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela-Victoria Anghelache & Stela Jakova & Dumitru-Cristian Oanea, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Capital Market Performance: Evidence from EU Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 34-43, April.
    2. Haitsma, Reinder & Unalmis, Deren & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 101-116.
    3. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2017. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-112.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working Papers 201742, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 72534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:21-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:176-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1372-1382 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 85432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2016. "On the Stock Markets’ Reactions to Taxation and Public Expenditure," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 115, European Institute, LSE.
    11. Rossanto Dwi HANDOYO & Mansor JUSOH & Mohd. Azlan SHAH ZAIDI, 2015. "Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Indonesian Stock Market," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(2), pages 113-126.
    12. Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2016. "Do Investors Listen to Fiscal Policy? – Study case Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 72458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:eee:ememar:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Stock market; Structural VAR; Fiscal and monetary policy interaction;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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