IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Stock Prices And Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach

  • Edouard Challe

    (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS, Banque de France, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

  • Chryssi Giannitsarou

    (CAM - University of Cambridge (UK) - University of Cambridge (UK), CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

Recent empirical literature documents that unexpected changes in the nominal interest rates have a significant effect on real stock prices: a 25-basis point increase in the nominal interest rate is associated with an immediate decrease in broad real stock indices that may range from 0.6 to 2.2 percent, followed by a gradual decay as real stock prices revert towards their long-run expected value. In this paper, we assess the ability of a general equilibrium New Keynesian asset-pricing model to account for these facts. The model we consider is a production economy with elastic labor supply, staggered price and wage setting, as well as time-varying risk aversion through habit formation. We find that the model predicts a stock market response to policy shocks that matches empirical estimates, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Our findings are robust to a range of variations and parameterizations of the model.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00719956v2/document
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00719956.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00719956
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00719956v2
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the Interdependence between US Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Memorandum 12/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  2. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
  3. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 2737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Online Appendix to Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Technical Appendices carceles08, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Campbell, John, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Scholarly Articles 3153293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jean-Pierre Danthine & André Kurmann, 2003. "Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 0320, CIRPEE.
  8. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h4838ip3n is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. " Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-72, December.
  13. Refet Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Research 143, National Bank of Belgium.
  15. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Clemens Sialm, 2002. "Stochastic Taxation and Asset Pricing in Dynamic General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 9301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  20. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
  21. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  22. Wei, Chao, 2009. "A quartet of asset pricing models in nominal and real economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 154-165, January.
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  24. Bianca De Paoli & Alasdair Scott & Olaf Weeken, 2007. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Bank of England working papers 326, Bank of England.
  25. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 47-64.
  26. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in an DSGE model for the US," Research Discussion Papers 11/2010, Bank of Finland.
  27. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Estimation and control of an optimization-based model with sticky prices and wages," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1181-1215, May.
  28. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  29. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
  30. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2002. "Solving Dynamic Equilibrium Models by a Method of Undetermined Coefficients," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 21-55, October.
  31. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  32. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
  33. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. " On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-54, June.
  34. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2013. "High Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality," NBER Working Papers 19260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  36. C Rceles-Poveda, Eva, 2005. "Idiosyncratic Shocks And Asset Returns In The Real-Business-Cycle Model: An Approximate Analytical Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 295-320, June.
  37. Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach : commentary," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 113-116.
  38. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," NBER Working Papers 16707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  40. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
  41. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 2011. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
  42. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in an DSGE model for the US," Research Discussion Papers 11/2010, Bank of Finland.
  43. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  44. Lettau, M. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1995. "Can Habit Formation be Reconciled with Business Cycle Facts?," Discussion Paper 1995-54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  45. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1663-91, June.
  46. Taeyoung Doh, 2009. "Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model," Research Working Paper RWP 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  47. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  48. Nisticò, Salvatore, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock-price dynamics in a DSGE framework," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 126-146.
  49. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
  50. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2007. "Asset Prices, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 256-275, April.
  51. Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno Ibáñez, Antonio, 2006. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 5956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
  53. Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Comment on: Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1177-1188, July.
  54. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, 08.
  55. Konstantin Kholodilin & Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Assessing the Impact of the ECB's Monetary Policy on the Stock Markets: A Sectoral View," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 814, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  56. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
  57. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Fisher, Adlai J. & Kuehn, Lars-Alexander, 2011. "Monetary policy and corporate default," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 480-494.
  58. Stefano Neri, 2004. "Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 513, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  59. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1986. "Sticky Goods Prices, Flexible Asset Prices, Monopolistic Competition, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 385-405.
  60. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  61. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  62. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  63. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  64. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
  65. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
  66. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-13, December.
  67. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 0354, European Central Bank.
  68. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  69. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  70. repec:dgr:kubcen:199554 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00719956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.