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Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions

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  • Lanne, Markku
  • Meitz, Mika
  • Saikkonen, Pentti

Abstract

Conventional structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models with Gaussian errors are not identified, and additional identifying restrictions are needed in applied work. We show that the Gaussian case is an exception in that a SVAR model whose error vector consists of independent non-Gaussian components is, without any additional restrictions, identified and leads to essentially unique impulse responses. Building upon this result, we introduce an identification scheme under which the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of the non-Gaussian SVAR model is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. As a consequence, additional economic identifying restrictions can be tested. In an empirical application, we find a negative impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock on financial markets, and clearly reject the commonly employed recursive identifying restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2017. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 288-304.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:196:y:2017:i:2:p:288-304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    2. Thorsten Drautzburg, 2014. "A Narrative Approach to a Fiscal DSGE Model," 2014 Meeting Papers 791, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "Consistent non-Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators," CEPR Discussion Papers 12682, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Crimea and Punishment: The Impact of Sanctions on Russian and European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1569, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Uhrin, Gábor B. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2016. "Monetary policy shocks, set-identifying restrictions, and asset prices: A benchmarking approach for analyzing set-identified models," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 295, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:eee:econom:v:203:y:2018:i:2:p:267-282 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Statistical inference for independent component analysis: Application to structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 111-126.
    8. repec:sbe:breart:v:37:y:2017:i:1:a:57700 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bla:ecorec:v:93:y:2017:i:302:p:465-483 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2017. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. repec:psc:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:323-357 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Markku Lanne & Jani Luoto, 2016. "Data-Driven Inference on Sign Restrictions in Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression," CREATES Research Papers 2016-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Nunes, Clemens Vinicius & Doi, Jonas & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2017. "Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts and Inflation Risk Premia in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.
    14. Marco Capasso & Alessio Moneta, 2016. "Macroeconomic responses to an independent monetary policy shock: a (more) agnostic identification procedure," LEM Papers Series 2016/36, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregressive model; Identification; Impulse responses; Non-Gaussianity;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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