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Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence

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  • Stefano Neri

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of monetary policy shocks on stock market indices in the G-7 countries and Spain using the methodology of structural VARs. A model is estimated for each country and the effects of monetary policy shocks are evaluated by means of impulse responses. A contractionary shock has a negative and temporary effect on stock market indices. There is evidence of a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the persistence, magnitude and timing of the responses. A limited participation model with households trading in stocks is set up and the responses of stock prices to a monetary policy shock under different rules are evaluated. The model is able to account for the empirical response of stock prices to monetary policy shocks under different policy rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Neri, 2004. "Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 513, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_513_04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    2. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Pirovano, Mara, 2012. "Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 372-390.
    5. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    6. Guarda, Paolo & Jeanfils, Philippe, 2012. "Macro-Financial Linkages: evidence from country-specific VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 8875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. R. Bonci & F. Columba, 2008. "Monetary policy effects: new evidence from the Italian flow-of-funds," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2803-2818.
    8. repec:vrs:ngooec:v:62:y:2016:i:4:p:23-32:n:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Challe, Edouard & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2014. "Stock prices and monetary policy shocks: A general equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-66.
    10. Massimo Caruso, 2006. "Stock market fluctuations and money demand in Italy, 1913-2003," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 576, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Riccardo Bonci & Francesco Columba, 2007. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Flow Of Funds:The Italian Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 75, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and financial conditions: A Monte Carlo experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 282-303.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; stock prices; structural VAR; limited participation model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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