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Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?

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  • Bouakez, Hafedh
  • Essid, Badye
  • Normandin, Michel

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the following three questions: (i) Do stock returns respond to monetary policy shocks? (ii) Do stock returns alter the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? and (iii) Does monetary policy systematically react to stock returns? Unlike existing empirical research on these topics, we use a structural vector auto-regression that relaxes the restrictions commonly imposed in earlier studies and identify monetary policy shocks by exploiting the conditional heteroskedasticity of the structural innovations. Applying this method to US data, we find that the interaction between monetary policy and stock returns is much weaker than suggested by earlier empirical studies.

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  • Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:33-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.01.002
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    2. Victor Song & Libo Xu, 2023. "Do Monetary Policy Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Market?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 1063-1078, November.
    3. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    4. Stefan Bruder, 2018. "Inference for structural impulse responses in SVAR-GARCH models," ECON - Working Papers 281, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
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    6. Sajjadur Rahman & Apostolos Serletis, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 707-722, September.
    7. Samuel Federico Kaplan & Arin Kerim Peren & Polyzos Efstathios & Spagnolo Nicola, 2022. "Stock Market Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks: Universal Firm-Level Evidence," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4571, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
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    9. Polyzos, Efstathios, 2022. "Examining the asymmetric impact of macroeconomic policy in the UAE: Evidence from quartile impulse responses and machine learning," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional heteroskedasticity; Identification; Monetary policy; Stock return; Structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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