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Whence GARCH? A Preference-Based Explanation for Conditional Volatility

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  • Grant McQueen

Abstract

We develop a preference-based equilibrium asset pricing model that explains low-frequency conditional volatility. Similar to Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2001), agents in our model care about wealth changes, experience loss aversion, and keep a mental scorecard that affects their level of risk aversion. A new feature of our model is that when perturbed by unexpected returns, investors become temporarily more sensitive to news. Gradually investors become accustomed to the new level of wealth, restoring prior levels of risk aversion and news sensitivity. The state-dependent sensitivity to news creates the type of volatility clustering found in low-frequency stock returns. We find empirical support for our model's predictions that relate the scorecard to conditional volatility and skewness. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant McQueen, 2004. "Whence GARCH? A Preference-Based Explanation for Conditional Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 915-949.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:17:y:2004:i:4:p:915-949
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    Cited by:

    1. Berkelaar, Arjan & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2009. "From boom 'til bust: How loss aversion affects asset prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1005-1013, June.
    2. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Pagano, Michael S., 2007. "Convergence and risk-return linkages across financial service firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1167-1190, April.
    3. Karnizova, Lilia, 2010. "The spirit of capitalism and expectation-driven business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 739-752, September.
    4. Kin‐Yip Ho & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012. "Dynamic Linkages among Financial Markets in the Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 500-523, April.
    5. Chiang, Min-Hsien & Huang, Hsin-Yi, 2011. "Stock market momentum, business conditions, and GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-505, June.
    6. Easley, David & Yang, Liyan, 2015. "Loss aversion, survival and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 494-516.
    7. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Berger, David & Chaboud, Alain & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-213, November.
    9. Bauer, Gregory H. & Vorkink, Keith, 2011. "Forecasting multivariate realized stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 93-101, January.
    10. Liu, Jingyi, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-07, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    11. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2015. "Systemic risk and asymmetric responses in the financial industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 471-485.
    12. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Linn, Scott C. & Zhu, Zhen, 2014. "The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    13. repec:cuf:journl:y:2013:v:14:i:1:n:3:huang is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hubner, Stefan, 2016. "Topics in nonparametric identification and estimation," Other publications TiSEM 08fce56b-3193-46e0-871b-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Deimante Teresiene, 2009. "Lithuanian stock market analysis using a set of Garch models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 349-360, August.
    16. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
    17. Talpsepp, Tõnn & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2010. "Explaining asymmetric volatility around the world," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 938-956, December.
    18. Jingyi Liu, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," ESE Discussion Papers 181, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    19. Jizheng Huang & Heng-fu Zou, 2013. "Asset Pricing, Capital Structure and the Spirit of Capitalism in a Production Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 367-384, November.
    20. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    21. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2008. "Realized volatility," Working Paper Series WP-08-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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