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Long-Term Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and Distribution of the Pie in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Xavier Ramos
  • Oriol Roca-Sagales

Abstract

This paper provides a joint analysis of the output and distributional long-term effects of various fiscal policies in the UK, using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. Our findings suggest that the long-term impact on GDP of increasing public spending and taxes is negative, and especially strong in the case of current expenditure. We also find significant distributional effects associated with fiscal policies, indicating that an increase in public spending reduces inequality while a rise in indirect taxes increases income inequality. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Ramos & Oriol Roca-Sagales, 2008. "Long-Term Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and Distribution of the Pie in the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 387-411, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:29:y:2008:i:3:p:387-411
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    Cited by:

    1. Odusola, Ayodele, "undated". "Fiscal Policy, Redistribution and Inequality in Africa," UNDP Africa Reports 267032, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    2. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:s1:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "Interrelation among Economic Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Anglo-Saxon Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 217(2), pages 37-66, June.
    4. Idrissa Ouedraogo & Issa Dianda & Pegdwende Patrik Roland Ouedraogo & Tiraogo Rodrigue Ouedraogo & Bassirou Konfe, 2025. "The Effects of Taxation on Income Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(1), pages 84-149, March.
    5. Kouassi YEBOUA, 2021. "Fiscal policy and growth-inequality tradeoffs: Bayesian evidence from Cote d’Ivoire," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 297-310, Spring.
    6. Gunasinghe, Chandika & Selvanathan, E.A. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Forster, John, 2020. "The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 250-270.
    7. Jeanne Terblanche & Dawie van Lill & Hylton Hollander, 2024. "Fiscal policy and dimensions of inequality in South Africa: A time‐varying coefficient approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 92(1), pages 105-119, March.
    8. M. Hakan Berument & Zulal Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2012. "Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(36), pages 4787-4798, December.
    9. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa & Ayodele Odusola, "undated". "Fiscal Policy, Redistribution and Inequality in Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2017-08, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    10. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo & Oriol Roca-Sagalés, 2017. "Long-term effects of fiscal policy in Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 17-02, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    11. Leonel Muinelo‐Gallo & Oriol Roca‐Sagalés, 2011. "Economic Growth And Inequality: The Role Of Fiscal Policies," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2-3), pages 74-97, September.
    12. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2018. "Cross-country evidence on the distributional impact of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5521-5542, November.
    13. Luigi Marattin & Simone Salotti, 2014. "Consumption multipliers of different types of public spending: a structural vector error correction analysis for the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1197-1220, June.
    14. Odusola, Ayodele, "undated". "Fiscal Space, Poverty and Inequality in Africa," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 268726, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    15. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    16. repec:rac:ecchap:2017-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Walter Cont & Alberto Porto, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution: Measurement for Argentina 1995 ¨C 2010," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 75-92, May.
    18. Jie Yan & Xunhua Tu & Jing Zheng, 2023. "Does digital economy strengthen the income distribution effect of fiscal expenditure? Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(8), pages 1-19, August.
    19. Muinelo-Gallo, Leonel & Roca-Sagalés, Oriol, 2013. "Joint determinants of fiscal policy, income inequality and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 814-824.
    20. repec:ira:wpaper:201405 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chandika Gunasinghe & E. A. Selvanathan & Athula Naranpanawa & John Forster, 2021. "Rising Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Does Fiscal Policy Sacrifice Economic Growth in Achieving Equity?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(6), pages 1840-1876, December.
    22. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Psarianos, Iacovos, 2014. "Fiscal imbalances and asymmetric adjustment under Labour and Conservative governments in the UK," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 208-213.
    23. Yongzheng Liu & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2015. "Growth–Inequality Tradeoff in the Design of Tax Structure: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 323-345, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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