IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Indeterminacy, underground activities and tax evasion

Listed author(s):
  • Busato, Francesco
  • Chiarini, Bruno
  • Marchetti, Enrico

This paper introduces underground activities and tax evasion into a one-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with aggregate external effects. The model presents a novel mechanism driving the self-fulfilling prophecies, which is characterized by well behaved (downward sloping) labor demand schedules. This mechanism differs from the customary one, and it is complementary to it. Compared to traditional labor market income, the income derived from underground labor activity is subject to a lower expected tax rate when considering both the probability of detection and the evasion penalty. During a belief-driven expansion, the household allocates more time to both traditional and underground labor supply. In equilibrium, this action serves to lower the effective labor tax rate faced by the household, thus providing stimulus to aggregate labor supply so as to make the initial expansion self-fulfilling. The mechanism here is akin to a "regressive tax"; the household's effective tax rate depends negatively on the level of total labor income. We argue that an underground sector, and the associated tax evasion, offer a good economic rationale for a regressive tax rate.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(10)00217-8
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 831-844

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:831-844
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Patrick Pintus, 2006. "Indeterminacy with almost constant returns to scale: capital-labor substitution matters," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 633-649, 08.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Roberto Perli, 1995. "Indeterminacy, Home Production, and the Business Cycle: a Calibrated Analysis," Home Pages _042, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Ghosal, Vivek, 1991. "Demand Uncertainty and the Capital-Labor Ratio: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 157-161, February.
  7. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
  8. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  9. Galí, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, Jose David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2004. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 4347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Some Stylized Facts on Non-Systematic Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Scholarly Articles 3353762, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Cho, J-O. & Cooley, T.F., 1988. "Employment And Hours Over The Business Cycle," Papers 88-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  13. Sanjit Dhami & Ali al-Nowaihi, 2005. "Why Do People Pay Taxes? Prospect Theory Versus Expected Utility Theory," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/23, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Aug 2006.
  14. Sbordone, Argia M, 1997. "Interpreting the Procyclical Productivity of Manufacturing Sectors: External Effects or Labor Hoarding?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 26-45, February.
  15. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  16. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Maintenance expenditures and indeterminacy under increasing returns to scale," Working Paper Series 2005-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Patrick-Antoine Pintus, 2009. "Local Determinacy with Non-separable Utility," Working Papers halshs-00409585, HAL.
  18. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1995. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," Working Papers 95-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  19. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Bennett, Rosalind L. & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2000. "Indeterminacy with Non-separable Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 118-143, July.
  21. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2006. "Indeterminacy with Small Externalities: The Role of Non-Separable Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 5541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-342, March.
  23. Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1997. "Intratemporal Substitution And Government Spending," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 605-609, November.
  24. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
  25. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 9-22, February.
  26. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
  29. Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2007. "Indeterminacy in discrete-time infinite-horizon models with non-linear utility and endogenous labor," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 446-476, April.
  30. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  31. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  32. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  33. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
  34. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  35. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Diaz Moreno & Jose Enrique Galdon Sanchez, 1997. "Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations," Working Papers in Economics 17, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  36. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price differentials in monetary unions: The role of fiscal shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005.
  37. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 639-687, October.
  38. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2004. "Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(4), pages 831-861, May.
  39. Ni, Shawn, 1995. "An empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 593-605, December.
  40. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
  41. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2003. "Intratemporal substitution between private and government consumption: the case of Japan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 75-81, April.
  42. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 1997. "Indeterminacy and stabilization policy," Working Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  43. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  44. Weder, Mark, 2003. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 65-81, March.
  45. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  46. Miguel Jimenez & Domenico Marchetti, 2002. "Interpreting the procyclical productivity of manufacturing sectors: can we really rule out external effects?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 805-817.
  47. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K & Romer, Paul M, 1992. "On Characterizing Equilibria of Economies with Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(1), pages 43-68, January.
  48. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 2004. "Public goods, merit goods, and the relation between private and government consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1367-1398, December.
  49. Frank A. Cowell, 1990. "Cheating the Government: The Economics of Evasion," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262532484.
  50. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038.
  51. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages -.
  52. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
  53. Graham, Fred C, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 659-666, June.
  54. Joulfaian, David & Rider, Mark, 1998. "Differential Taxation and TaxEvasion by Small Business," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 51(4), pages 676-687, December.
  55. Gordon, James P. P., 1989. "Individual morality and reputation costs as deterrents to tax evasion," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 797-805, April.
  56. Hintermaier, Thomas, 2003. "On the minimum degree of returns to scale in sunspot models of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 400-409, June.
  57. Graham, Fred C & Himarios, Daniel, 1991. "Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption: Instrumental Variables Tests of the "Consolidated Approach."," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 53-67, February.
  58. Bajada, Christopher, 1999. "Estimates of the Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 369-384, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:831-844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.