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Shining a light on the shadows: Identifying robust determinants of the shadow economy

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  • Goel, Rajeev K.
  • Nelson, Michael A.

Abstract

Despite the substantial body of research studying the determinants of the shadow economy in the past few decades, consensus on a set of consistent drivers of the underground sector has failed to emerge. This paper aims to synthesize the literature by identifying robust determinants of the shadow economy and addressing related modeling uncertainty. Using three different cross-national shadow measures and employing numerous determinants over hundreds of model combinations, we find that bureaucratic complexity is more significant than monetary severity in driving the shadow economy. Further, the incentives of new shadow entrepreneurs are somewhat different from established shadow operators. A one standard deviation increase in tax complexity increases the overall shadow economy by over ten percent of the mean. In contrast, a similar increase in business startup costs increases the prevalence of new informal entrepreneurs by almost more than double. Further, shadow determinants in developed and developing nations are dissimilar.

Suggested Citation

  • Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A., 2016. "Shining a light on the shadows: Identifying robust determinants of the shadow economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 351-364.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:58:y:2016:i:c:p:351-364
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.009
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    3. Salvatore Capasso & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2022. "Informality and financial development: A literature review," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(5), pages 587-608, September.
    4. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Schneider, Friedrich, 2019. "Drivers of the underground economy for over a century: A long term look for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 95-106.
    5. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    6. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W., 2020. "Spatial spillovers of pollution onto the underground sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed & Rambeli, Norimah & Abdul Jalil, Norasibah & Kuperan Viswanathan, K., 2019. "A modified Currency Demand Function and the Malaysian shadow economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 266-281.
    8. Saunoris, James W., 2024. "Individualism, economic freedom, and the development of the shadow economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    9. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    10. Medda, Tiziana & Palmisano, Flaviana & Sacchi, Agnese, 2022. "Informal we stand? The role of social progress around the world," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 660-675.
    11. Barra, Cristian & Papaccio, Anna & Ruggiero, Nazzareno, 2024. "Are cooperative and commercial banks equally effective in reducing the shadow economy? International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Salmon Mugoda & Stephen Esaku & Rose Kibuka Nakimu & Edward Bbaale & Robert Read, 2020. "The portrait of Uganda’s informal sector: What main obstacles do the sector face?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1843255-184, January.
    13. Mara, Eugenia Ramona, 2021. "Drivers of the shadow economy in European Union welfare states: A panel data analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 309-325.
    14. Piotr Dybka & Bartosz Olesiński & Marek Rozkrut & Andrzej Torój, 2020. "Measuring the uncertainty of shadow economy estimates using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging," KAE Working Papers 2020-046, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    15. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G., 2021. "Can e-government limit the scope of the informal economy?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Marshall, Emily C. & Saunoris, James & Solis-Garcia, Mario & Do, Trang, 2023. "Measuring the size and dynamics of U.S. state-level shadow economies using a dynamic general equilibrium model with trends," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Aysel Amir, 2023. "Investigating the Determinants of the Shadow Economy: The Baltic Region," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(2), pages 181-198, March.
    18. Sacchi Agnese & Santolini Raffaella & Schneider Friedrich, 2022. "On the effects of e-participation on shadow economy: a worldwide empirical analysis," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 463-491, August.
    19. Erumban, Abdul A., 2024. "Informality and aggregate labor productivity growth: Does ICT moderate the relationship?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    20. Estevão, João & Lopes, José Dias & Penela, Daniela, 2022. "The importance of the business environment for the informal economy: Evidence from the Doing Business ranking," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    21. Pang, Jingru & Li, Nan & Mu, Hailin & Jin, Xin & Zhang, Ming, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of urbanization on shadow economy both in short-run and long-run:New evidence from dynamic panel threshold model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    22. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Shadow Economy in Poland: Results of the Survey," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 49-65, Springer.
    23. Folorunsho M. Ajide, 2021. "Shadow economy in Africa: how relevant is financial inclusion?," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 297-316, April.
    24. Lv, Zhike, 2020. "Does tourism affect the informal sector?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; Robustness analysis; Modeling uncertainty; Entry barriers; Development; Taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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