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Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory

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  • Colombo, Emilio
  • Onnis, Luisanna
  • Tirelli, Patrizio

Abstract

This paper investigates the response of the shadow economy to banking crises. Our empirical analysis, based on a large sample of countries, suggests that the informal sector is a powerful buffer, which expands at times of banking crises and absorbs a large proportion of the fall in official output. To rationalise our evidence, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which accounts for financial and labour market frictions and for nominal rigidities. In line with the empirical literature on the shadow economy, we assume that in the informal sector access to external finance is limited, and the production technology is relatively more labour intensive. Following a banking shock in the official sector, the model predicts a large negative transmission to the unofficial economy that substantially dampens the overall effect of the shock.

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  • Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:62:y:2016:i:c:p:180-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.09.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Elgin, Ceyhun & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yu, Shu, 2021. "Growing Apart or Moving Together? Synchronization of Informal and Formal Economy Cycles," MPRA Paper 109492, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Donal Mac Géidigh & Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Grey Matters: Charting the Development of the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6234, CESifo.
    3. Garcia, D & Granda, C, 2019. "Informalidad, ciclos económicos y política fiscal: una exploración de los nexos," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 018984, Alianza EFI.
    4. Emanuele Bracco & Luisanna Onnis, 2015. "Immigration, Amnesties and the Shadow Economy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 418, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    5. Neslihan Kahyalar & Bazoumana Ouattara & Sami Fethi, 2020. "The Impact of Financial Crises on the Informal Economy: The Turkish Case," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(2), pages 145-172, April.
    6. Christoforos Andreou & Elena Andreou & Stephanie Michael & George Syrichas, 2021. "The Shadow Economy in Cyprus: Evidence from the Electricity Consumption and Currency Demand Methods," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 15(1), pages 46-74, June.
    7. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Investment Shocks, Tax Evasion and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6015, CESifo.
    8. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G., 2021. "Can e-government limit the scope of the informal economy?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Colombo, Emilio & Menna, Lorenzo & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2019. "Informality and the labor market effects of financial crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-22.
    10. Novkovska, B. & Novkovski, N., 2018. "Energy consumption and hidden economy in Macedonia: Causes and responses," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 166-181.
    11. Ceyhun Elgin & Ferda Erturk, 2019. "Informal economies around the world: measures, determinants and consequences," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 221-237, June.
    12. Abdel-Latif, Hany & Ouattara, Bazoumana & Murphy, Phil, 2017. "Catching the mirage: The shadow impact of financial crises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 61-70.
    13. Hou, Xiaohui & Li, Shuo & Guo, Pin & Wang, Qing, 2018. "The cost effects of shadow banking activities and political intervention: Evidence from the banking sector in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 307-318.
    14. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    15. Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A., 2016. "Shining a light on the shadows: Identifying robust determinants of the shadow economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 351-364.
    16. Novkovska, Blagica, 2016. "How Strongly The Hidden Economy Of A Small Country Can Be Influenced By Drastic Events: Case Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 7(2), pages 187-195.
    17. Caro, Paolo Di & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The heterogeneous effects of labor informality on VAT revenues: Evidence on a developed country," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Shadow economy; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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