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Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory

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  • Colombo, Emilio
  • Onnis, Luisanna
  • Tirelli, Patrizio

Abstract

This paper investigates the response of the shadow economy to banking crises. Our empirical analysis, based on a large sample of countries, suggests that the informal sector is a powerful buffer, which expands at times of banking crises and absorbs a large proportion of the fall in official output. To rationalise our evidence, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which accounts for financial and labour market frictions and for nominal rigidities. In line with the empirical literature on the shadow economy, we assume that in the informal sector access to external finance is limited, and the production technology is relatively more labour intensive. Following a banking shock in the official sector, the model predicts a large negative transmission to the unofficial economy that substantially dampens the overall effect of the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:62:y:2016:i:c:p:180-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.09.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Donal Mac Géidigh & Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Grey Matters: Charting the Development of the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6234, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Emanuele Bracco & Luisanna Onnis, 2015. "Immigration, Amnesties and the Shadow Economy," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 418, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    3. Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A., 2016. "Shining a light on the shadows: Identifying robust determinants of the shadow economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 351-364.
    4. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Investment Shocks, Tax Evasion and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6015, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:1:p:166-181 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:quaeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:61-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    8. Novkovska, Blagica, 2016. "How Strongly The Hidden Economy Of A Small Country Can Be Influenced By Drastic Events: Case Of Macedonia," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 7(2), pages 187-195.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Shadow economy; DSGE models;

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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