IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v57y2016icp197-207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Berdiev, Aziz N.
  • Saunoris, James W.

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between financial development and the shadow economy using data for 161 countries over the period 1960–2009. Specifically, we use a panel vector autoregression model to construct impulse response functions that illustrate the time path of one variable (e.g., the shadow economy) following an orthogonal shock to another variable (e.g., financial development). We find that financial development reduces the size of the shadow economy. Moreover, there is some evidence of reverse causality between these variables; namely, a shock to shadow economy inhibits financial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2016. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 197-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:197-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316300797
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Straub, Stéphane, 2005. "Informal sector: The credit market channel," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 299-321, December.
    2. Blackburn, Keith & Bose, Niloy & Capasso, Salvatore, 2012. "Tax evasion, the underground economy and financial development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-253.
    3. Berdiev & Cullen Pasquesi-Hill & Saunoris, 2015. "Exploring the dynamics of the shadow economy across US states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(56), pages 6136-6147, December.
    4. Niloy Bose & Salvatore Capasso & Martin Andreas Wurm, 2012. "The impact of banking development on the size of shadow economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 620-638, December.
    5. Giorgio Gobbi & Roberta Zizza, 2007. "Does the Underground Economy Hold Back Financial Deepening? Evidence from the Italian Credit Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0789, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Antunes, Antonio R. & Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V., 2007. "Start up costs, limited enforcement, and the hidden economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 203-224, January.
    7. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    8. Axel Dreher & Christos Kotsogiannis & Steve McCorriston, 2009. "How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(6), pages 773-796, December.
    9. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters,in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    11. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    12. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    13. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    14. Serdar Birinci, 2013. "Trade openness, growth, and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 694-705.
    15. Keith Blackburn & Niloy Bosey & Salvatore Capasso, 2008. "Financial Development and the Underground Economy," Working Papers 5_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    16. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo Group Munich.
    17. Beck, T.H.L. & Hoseini, M., 2014. "Informality and Access to Finance : Evidence from India," Discussion Paper 2014-052, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Panicos Demetriades & Siong Hook Law, 2006. "Finance, institutions and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 245-260.
    19. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    21. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984–2006," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(5), pages 510-543, September.
    22. Thorsten Beck & Chen Lin & Yue Ma, 2014. "Why Do Firms Evade Taxes? The Role of Information Sharing and Financial Sector Outreach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 763-817, April.
    23. Amaral, Pedro S. & Quintin, Erwan, 2006. "A competitive model of the informal sector," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1541-1553, October.
    24. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    25. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18237, December.
    26. Andrew Ellul & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Fausto Panunzi, 2016. "Transparency, Tax Pressure, and Access to Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 37-76.
    27. Ceyhun Elgin & Burak Uras, 2013. "Is informality a barrier to financial development?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 309-331, August.
    28. Dabla-Norris, Era & Gradstein, Mark & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2008. "What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-27, February.
    29. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. James Alm & Abel Embaye, 2013. "Using Dynamic Panel Methods to Estimate Shadow Economies Around the World, 1984-2006," Working Papers 1303, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    31. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    32. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    33. Friedrich Schneider (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13432.
    34. repec:hrv:faseco:30728045 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Erwan Quintin, 2008. "Contract enforcement and the size of the informal economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 37(3), pages 395-416, December.
    36. Désirée Teobaldelli, 2011. "Federalism and the shadow economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 269-289, March.
    37. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    38. Capasso, Salvatore & Jappelli, Tullio, 2013. "Financial development and the underground economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 167-178.
    39. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
    40. Karima Saci & Ken Holden, 2008. "Evidence on growth and financial development using principal components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(19), pages 1549-1560.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:soinre:v:138:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1696-z is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Njangang, Henri, 2018. "Does financial development reduce the size of the informal economy in Sub-Saharan African countries?," MPRA Paper 89851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:238-252 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:117-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Diego A. Agudelo & Ignacio Arango, 2017. "How does information disclosure affect liquidity? Evidence from an Emerging Market," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 016944, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    6. Imamoglu, Hatice, 2017. "Estimating the roles of financial sector development and international trade openness in underground economies: Evidence from the European Union," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-50, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. repec:rfa:aefjnl:v:5:y:2018:i:3:p:34-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3518-:d:173007 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; Financial development; Panel vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:197-207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.