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Trade openness, growth, and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD economies

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  • Serdar Birinci

    (Bogazici University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes empirically the linkages between trade openness, economic growth, and the size of the informal economy. I employ panel VAR techniques in a quarterly panel data set composed of 12 advanced economies over the period from 1964:1 to 2010:4 allowing bi-directional interaction between the variables in the system in order to address the endogeneity problem. The results provide evidence that there is a positive bi-directional relationship between GDP growth and trade openness. Second, fluctuations of GDP growth are explained by the size of the informal economy, while the impact of GDP growth on the size of the informal economy is not found to be robust with respect to change in VAR order. Moreover, the size of the informal economy affects GDP growth more than openness, and the causality from openness to GDP growth is slightly stronger than the causality from GDP growth to openness. Finally, there is no conclusive, robust evidence regarding the interaction between the size of the informal economy and trade openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Birinci, 2013. "Trade openness, growth, and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 694-705.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00032
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    2. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2014. "Temporal causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and real GDP: evidence from Thailand," MPRA Paper 59652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Isaac Ketu & Arsene Mouongue Kelly & Jules-Eric Tchapchet Tchouto, 2024. "Does economic complexity reduce the size of the shadow economy in African countries?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2014. "Temporal causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and real GDP: evidence from Thailand," MPRA Paper 60623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2019. "On the Relationship Between Income Inequality and the Shadow Economy," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 224-249, April.
    6. Abeer Elshennawy & Dirk Willenbockel, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and the Costs and Benefits of Informality an Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model for Egypt," Working Papers 888, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    7. Imamoglu, Hatice, 2017. "Estimating the roles of financial sector development and international trade openness in underground economies: Evidence from the European Union," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-50, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.
    9. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2016. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 197-207.
    10. Aristophane Djeufack Dongmo & Paloma Mbengono Coralie & Manuela Chetue Komguep & Ulrich Kembeng Tchinda, 2023. "Urbanization, informal economy, economic growth and CO2 emissions in African countries: a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model approach," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 35-63, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    informal sector; openness; growth; panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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