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Tax reforms and the underground economy: a simulation-based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Barbara Annicchiarico

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

  • Claudio Cesaroni

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata)

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of several tax reforms in an economy where taxes are partially evaded by means of undeclared work. To this purpose, we consider a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to Italy which explicitly accounts for underground production. We construct various tax reform scenarios, such as ex ante budget-neutral tax shifts from direct to indirect taxes, and tax cuts on labor and business financed by decreases of government spending. Our results indicate that neglecting the existence of the underground sector may lead to severely miscalculating the macroeconomic effects of tax reforms. Further, the dimension of the underground sector is permanently and considerably reduced by changes in the tax mix that diminish the labor tax wedge. Reductions of the business tax prove to be highly expansionary in the presence of a sizable informal sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Cesaroni, 2018. "Tax reforms and the underground economy: a simulation-based analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 458-518, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:25:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10797-017-9450-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-017-9450-7
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    2. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2020. "Tax Evasion, Investment Shocks, and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 907-932, June.
    3. Barbara Annichiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2016. "IGEM II: a New Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    4. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Investment Shocks, Tax Evasion and the Consumption Puzzle: A DSGE Analysis with Financial Frictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6015, CESifo.
    5. Buček Jakub, 2017. "Determinants of the Shadow Economy in the Czech Regions: A Region-Level Study," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(3), pages 315-329, September.
    6. Harsha Konara Mudiyanselage & Shawn Xiaoguang Chen, 2022. "What impairs the ‘money machine’ of VAT in developing countries?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1128-1159, October.
    7. Eric Amoo Bondzie & Mark Kojo Armah, 2022. "A DSGE model of fiscal stabilizers and informality in Sub-Sahara Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2137985-213, December.
    8. Bruno Chiarini & Maria Ferrara & Elisabetta Marzano, 2018. "Credit Channel and Business Cycle: The Role of Tax Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 7169, CESifo.
    9. Ivan A. Kapitonov, 2020. "Transformation of social environment in the application of alternative energy sources," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7683-7700, December.
    10. Herranz, Moisés Meroño & Turino, Francesco, 2023. "Tax evasion, fiscal policy and public debt: Evidence from Spain," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    11. Florencia Amábile & Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2023. "Should I stay or should I go?: the economic incentives of intergenerational taxes and transfers in Uruguay," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 493-524, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic general equilibrium model; Underground economy; Tax reforms; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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