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Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Countries: What do we (not) know?

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  • Andreas Bühn
  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

For the first time we develop a time series of tax evasion (in % of official GDP) for 38 OECD countries over the period 1999 to 2010 based on MIMIC model estimations of the shadow economy. Considering indirect taxation and self-employment as the driving forces of tax evasion, we observe a declining trend of tax evasion between 1999 and 2010 for all countries. The average size of tax evasion across all 38 countries over the period 1999 to 2010 is 3.2% of official GDP. The country with the highest average value is Mexico with 6.8%, followed by Turkey with 6.7%; at the lower end we find the United States and Luxembourg with 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Bühn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Size and Development of Tax Evasion in 38 OECD Countries: What do we (not) know?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4004, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4004
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    2. Panayiota Lyssiotou & Panos Pashardes & Thanasis Stengos, 2004. "Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 622-640, July.
    3. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    4. Benno Torgler, 2003. "Tax Morale and Institutions," CREMA Working Paper Series 2003-09, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    6. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    7. Lars P. Feld & Benno Torgler, 2007. "Tax Morale after the Reunification of Germany: Results from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-03, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    8. Schneider, Friedrich & Buehn, Andreas, 2012. "Shadow Economies in Highly Developed OECD Countries: What Are the Driving Forces?," IZA Discussion Papers 6891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    10. Thomas, Jim, 1999. "Quantifying the Black Economy: 'Measurement without Theory' Yet Again?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 381-389, June.
    11. Friedrich Schneider (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Shadow Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13432.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Evasione e debito
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2014-08-15 21:55:00
    2. QED 44: Varoufake e gli 00740
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2015-03-07 06:49:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Bernasconi & Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2020. "Dynamic Tax Evasion with Habit Formation in Consumption," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(3), pages 966-992, July.
    2. David S. Reher, 2021. "The Aftermath of the Demographic Transition in the Developed World: Interpreting Enduring Disparities in Reproductive Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 475-503, June.
    3. Pietro Battiston & Denvil Duncan & Simona Gamba & Alessandro Santoro, 2020. "Audit Publicity and Tax Compliance: A Natural Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 81-108, January.
    4. Tânia Menezes Montenegro, 2021. "Tax Evasion, Corporate Social Responsibility and National Governance: A Country-Level Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    6. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(II), pages 125-177, June.
    7. Kim, Jiwoon, 2022. "Factors for the Decline of the Self-employed in Korea: A Search and Matching Model Approach," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 44(2), pages 45-71.
    8. Di Gioacchino, Debora & Sabani, Laura & Tedeschi, Simone, 2019. "Individual preferences for public education spending: Does personal income matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 211-228.
    9. Hailin Chen & Friedrich Schneider & Qunli Sun, 2018. "Size, Determinants, and Consequences of Corruption in China's Provinces: The MIMIC Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 7175, CESifo.
    10. Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Cesaroni, 2018. "Tax reforms and the underground economy: a simulation-based analysis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 458-518, April.
    11. Daniel Němec & Zuzana Machová & Igor Kotlán & Eva Kotlánová & Christiana Kliková, 2022. "Corruption in Public Administration as a Brake on Transition to Industry 4.0," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    12. Gamannossi degl’Innocenti, Duccio & Rablen, Matthew D., 2020. "Tax evasion on a social network," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 79-91.
    13. Friedrich Schneider, 2013. "Size and Progression of the Shadow Economies of Turkey and Other OECD Countries from 2003 to 2013; Some New Facts," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 83-116, May.
    14. Tassos Giannitsis & Stavros Zografakis, 2018. "Crisis management in Greece," IMK Studies 58-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Ioannis Gasteratos & Michael Karamalis & Andreas Koutoupis, 2016. "Shadow Economy Worsens Income distribution," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 80-92.
    16. Schaltegger, Christoph A. & Weder, Martin, 2014. "Austerity, inequality and politics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-22.
    17. Dennis Nchor, 2021. "Shadow economies and tax evasion: The case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 43(1), pages 21-37, March.
    18. Ek, Andreas, 2021. "Cross-country differences in preferences for leisure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Felix Schmutz, 2016. "Measuring the Invisible: An Overview of and Outlook for Tax Non-Compliance Estimates and Measurement Methods for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 152(2), pages 125-177, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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