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The Canadian underground and measured economies: Granger causality results

Author

Listed:
  • David Giles
  • Lindsay Tedds
  • Gugsa Werkneh

Abstract

Using new time-series data for the size of the Canadian underground economy, the relationship between unreported and measured GDP in that country is examined. Granger causality tests are conducted, with a proper allowance for the non-stationarity of the data. It is found that there is clear evidence of such causality from measured GDP to 'hidden' output, but only very mild evidence of Granger causality in the reverse direction. This result supports similar evidence for New Zealand reported by the first author, and has several interesting policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • David Giles & Lindsay Tedds & Gugsa Werkneh, 2002. "The Canadian underground and measured economies: Granger causality results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2347-2352.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:18:p:2347-2352
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840210148021
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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