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Military expenditures and shadow economy in the Baltic States: Is there a link?

Author

Listed:
  • Fedotenkov, Igor
  • Schneider, Friedrich

Abstract

The main goal of our paper is to determine the existence of a link between government (military) expenditures and the shadow economy in the Baltic States. The empirical investigation is done over the years 2003-2014 for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. We showed that there is a highly statistically significant positive dependence between the size of the shadow economy and military expenditures in the Baltic States. Our conclusion is that higher military expenditures indeed lead to a higher shadow economy and this result is robust to different model specifications. In order to demonstrate the importance of our highly statistically significant results we undertook a simulation where we calculated how much the size of the shadow economy would increase if the size of military expenditure as a percentage of GDP doubled: In Estonia such an expansion would have led to an increase in the size of the shadow economy from 27.1% to 30.1%, in Latvia from 24.7% to 26.1% and in Lithuania from 27.1% to 28.4% in 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedotenkov, Igor & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "Military expenditures and shadow economy in the Baltic States: Is there a link?," MPRA Paper 76194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76194
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76194/1/MPRA_paper_76194.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 139-171, February.
    2. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 159-240.
    3. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    4. Schneider Friedrich, 2010. "The Influence of Public Institutions on the Shadow Economy: An Empirical Investigation for OECD Countries," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 441-468, December.
    5. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2012. "Corruption, Military Spending And Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 591-604, December.
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    7. Colin C. Williams & Ioana A. Horodnic, 2015. "Explaining and tackling the shadow economy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: a tax morale approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 81-98.
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    9. em. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo Group Munich.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; military expenditures; Baltic States;

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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