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Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes

In this paper, we assess the impact of fiscal policy discretion on economic activity in the short and medium-term. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that fiscal policy discretion provides a net stimulus to the economy in the short-run and crowding-in effects are amplified once crisis episodes are controlled for– in particular, banking crises - giving a great scope for fiscal policy stimulus packages. However, crowding-out effects take over in the long-run – especially, in the case of debt crises -, in line with the concerns about long-term debt sustainability.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2011/NIPE_WP_31_2011.pdf
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 31/2011.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:31/2011
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Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal

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