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Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System

Author

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  • Gila-Gourgoura, E.

    () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town, Middle Campus, Rondebosch, 7701, Cape Town, South Africa)

  • Nikolaidou, E.

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town, Middle Campus, Rondebosch, 7701, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system over the period 1997Q4–2015Q3. This timeframe includes not only the booming period for the Spanish economy but also an extended post-crises interval which is missing from other studies for Spain. Design/methodology/approach: Using quarterly data from the Central Bank of Spain and from the European Central Bank, the paper employs the ARDL approach to cointegration to identify the existence of a long or short-run relationship between NPLs and a set of macroeconomic, bank-related and country-specific indicators. Findings: Findings from the ARDL model indicate that macroeconomic, bank-specific variables and interest rates are important determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system. Specifically, the real GDP, the Spanish long-term government bond yield, the return on equity, the total credit granted by the Spanish banks and their capital to assets ratio, explain credit risk in Spain both in the short and the long run. Research limitations/implications: Data on the bank-specific variables are for the whole banking industry, and not for individual banks. If such data were available, a comparison of the credit risk determinants between small/ big banks, private/public or domestic/foreign could be possibly made. Originality/value: These findings provide useful evidence to bank managers and policymakers in dealing with loans' defaults in Spain and in undertaking crucial reforms to stabilize the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Gila-Gourgoura, E. & Nikolaidou, E., 2017. "Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 10(1), pages 60-71, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:60-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Spain; banking system; ARDL; Global financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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