The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states
Rapid credit growth has been one of the most pervasive developments in recent years in Central and Eastern Europe. Our estimates support the hypothesis that the growth of credit and the amount of available finance might harm banking performance and deteriorate non-performing loans (NPL) dynamics, most probably due to the overheating of economies in the five NMSs. The procyclicality of banking sector performance and high economic activities growth is a signal of an economy overheating and therefore a slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the growth of the NPL ratio.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1993. "Testing Identifiability and Specification in Instrumental Variable Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 222-240, April.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978.
"Specification Tests in Econometrics,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November.
- Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Giovanni Majnoni & Matthew T. Jones & Winfrid Blaschke, 2001. "Stress Testing of Financial Systems; An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences," IMF Working Papers 01/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002.
"Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility,"
Working Paper Series
0150, European Central Bank.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009.
"Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: empirical evidence,"
IWQW Discussion Paper Series
- Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
- Frank Kleibergen & Richard Paap, 2003.
"Generalized Reduced Rank Tests using the Singular Value Decomposition,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
03-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
- Richard Paap & Frank Kleibergen, 2004. "Generalized Reduced Rank Tests using the Singular Value Decomposition," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 195, Econometric Society.
- Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 2003. "Generalized Reduced Rank Tests using the Singular Value Decomposition," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Helmut Luetkepohl & Fang Xu, 2009.
"The Role of the Log Transformation in Forecasting Economic Variables,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2591, CESifo Group Munich.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Fang Xu, 2012. "The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 619-638, June.
- Martin ÈIHÁK & Jaroslav HEØMÁNEK & Michal HLAVÁÈEK, 2007. "New Approaches to Stress Testing the Czech Banking Sector (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 41-59, March.
- Berglof Erik & Roland Gerard, 1995.
"Bank Restructuring and Soft Budget Constraints in Financial Transition,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 354-375, December.
- Berglöf, Erik & Roland, Gérard, 1995. "Bank Restructuring and Soft Budget Constraints in Financial Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "Contagion, Globalization, and the Volatility of Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 15-41 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Gerlach & Wensheng Peng & Chang Shu, 2005. "Macroeconomic conditions and banking performance in Hong Kong SAR: a panel data study," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 481-97 Bank for International Settlements.
- Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2002.
"A New Specification Test for the Validity of Instrumental Variables,"
Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 163-189, January.
- Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 1999. "A New Specification Test for the Validity of Instrumental Variables," Working papers 99-11, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Pang, Jiaren & Wu, Haibin, 2009. "Financial markets, financial dependence, and the allocation of capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 810-818, May.
- Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011.
"Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
- Riadh Aloui & Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Khuong Nguyen Duc, 2010. "Global Financial Crisis, Extreme Interdependences, and Contagion E§ects: The Role of Economic Structure," Working Papers 15, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
- Backé, Peter & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Credit booms, monetary integration and the new neoclassical synthesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 458-470, March.
- Rita Babihuga, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Financial Soundness Indicators; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 07/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Sirtaine, Sophie & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2007. "Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4281, The World Bank.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994.
"Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006.
"Lending Booms and Lending Standards,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October.
- Candida Ferreira, 2008. "The banking sector, economic growth and European integration," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 512-527, November.
- Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 5.
- Juraj Zeman & Pavol Jurca, 2008. "Macro Stress Testing of the Slovak Banking Sector," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2008, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael P. Murray, 2006. "Avoiding Invalid Instruments and Coping with Weak Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 111-132, Fall.
- Michele Gambera, 2000. "Simple forecasts of bank loan quality in the business cycle," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr.
- Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
- Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:310-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.