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Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices

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  • Luca Agnello
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. As a result, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding-out effects; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts; and (iv) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.
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  • Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Policy And Asset Prices," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 154-177, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:65:y:2013:i:2:p:154-177 DOI: j.0307-3378.2011.00420.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 874-890.
    2. Vitor Castro & Megumi Kubota, 2013. "Duration dependence and change-points in the likelihood of credit booms ending," GEMF Working Papers 2013-17, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working papers 2017-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Ghassen El Montasser & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The Time-Series Linkages between US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," Working Papers 201519, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Forecasting the U.S. real house price index," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 259-267.
    6. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Manthos D., 2010. "Bank heterogeneity and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 1233, European Central Bank.
    7. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, pages 176-196.
    8. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
    9. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    11. Jawadi, Fredj & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policies in the BRICS: A panel VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 535-542.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-473 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1133-1154.
    14. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 754-769.
    15. Burkhard Heer & Christian Scharrer, 2016. "The Burden of Unanticipated Government Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series 5876, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 325-342.
    17. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, pages 176-196.
    18. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2016. "The impacts of fiscal policy shocks on the US housing market," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 777-800.
    19. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 874-890.
    20. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2015. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2015/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    21. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "The output effects of systematic and non-systematic fiscal policy changes in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, pages 1816-1831.
    22. Tsai, I-Chun, 2015. "Dynamic information transfer in the United States housing and stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, pages 215-230.
    23. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1133-1154.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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