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An Independent Central Bank Faced With Elected Governments

  • Demertzis, Maria
  • Hughes Hallett, Andrew

The literature argues that the benefits of an independent Central Bank accrue at no cost to the real side. In this paper, we argue that the lack of correlation between monetary autonomy and output variability is due to the proactive role of fiscal policy when faced with rigid monetary objectives. None of the attempts in the literature to measure these correlations allow for a changing fiscal role. As monetary policy is handled by an independent authority, fiscal and wage/social protection policies remain an instrument in the hands of national governments. We find that so long as the two authorities pursue their goals independently of each other, a conflict arises which is exacerbated as preferences diverge. Further to that we find that the establishment of a conservative Central Bank encourages more left-wing preferences amongst the public (as reflected in the governments they elect). And the election of more left-wing governments makes it more difficult for each authority to reach their own preferred objectives, unless they are able to cooperate.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2219.

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Date of creation: Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2219
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  6. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Bovenberg, A. Lans, 1997. "Central bank independence and public debt policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 873-894, May.
  7. Bulow, Jeremy I & Geanakoplos, John D & Klemperer, Paul D, 1985. "Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 488-511, June.
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  11. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
  12. Adam Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
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  16. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1999. "An Independent Central Bank Faced With Elected Governments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Nicola Viegi, 1999. "Can the ECB be Truly Independent? Should It Be?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 217-240, September.
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  20. Bovenberg, A.L. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J., 1997. "Central Bank independence and public debt policy," Other publications TiSEM d1fc1375-507c-445b-9b38-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  21. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1998. "Independently Blue? Accountability and Independence in the New European Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 1842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. M. Demertzis, 2001. "Central Bank Independence: Low Inflation at no Cost? A Numeral Simulations Exercise," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 656, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  23. Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Lessons from the Bundesbank on the Occasion of Its 40th (and Second to Last?) Birthday," Working Paper Series WP97-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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  32. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-74443 is not listed on IDEAS
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