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Debt, inflation and central bank independence

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  • Martin, Fernando M.

Abstract

Increasing the independence of a central bank from political influence, although ex-ante socially beneficial and initially successful in reducing inflation, would ultimately fail to lower inflation permanently. The smaller anticipated policy distortions implemented by a more independent central bank would induce the fiscal authority to decrease current distortions by increasing the deficit. Over time, inflation would increase to accommodate a higher public debt. By contrast, imposing a strict inflation target would lower inflation permanently and insulate the primary deficit from political distortions.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:129-150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.07.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Blancheton, Bertrand, 2016. "Central bank independence in a historical perspective. Myth, lessons and a new model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 101-107.
    2. Berentsen, Aleksander & Huber, Samuel & Marchesiani, Alessandro, 2016. "The societal benefit of a financial transaction tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 303-323.
    3. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-184.
    4. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    6. Geeta Garg, 2015. "Impact of trilemma indicators on macroeconomic policy: Does central bank independence matter?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-019, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    8. Abdelkader Aguir, 2018. "Central Bank Credibility, Independence, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(3), pages 91-110.
    9. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation In Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Working Papers AESRI06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    10. Jean Barthélemy & Eric Mengus & Guillaume Plantin, 2021. "The Central Bank, the Treasury, or the Market: Which One Determines the Price Level?," Working papers 855, Banque de France.
    11. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    12. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Fernando M. Martin, 2016. "The Value of Constraints on Discretionary Government Policy," Working Papers 2016-19, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation in Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 75-100.
    15. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2019. "Behavioral Monetary Policymaking: Economics, Political Economy and Psychology," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Behavioral Finance The Coming of Age, chapter 9, pages 285-329, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Fernando Martin, 2019. "How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules," 2019 Meeting Papers 1181, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2018. "To Be or not to Be a Euro Country? The Behavioural Political Economics of Currency Unions," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1883, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation in Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 75-100.
    19. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Samad Sarferaz, 2016. "On the Low‐Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 566-583, April.
    20. BLANCHETON Bertrand, 2015. "Towards a tacit low-degree independence central banking model ?," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-17, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    21. Ohik Kwon & Seungduck Lee & Jaevin Park, 2020. "Central Bank Digital Currency, Tax Evasion, Inflation Tax, and Central Bank Independence," Working Papers 2020-26, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    22. Aleksander Berentsen & Samuel Huber & Alessandro Marchesiani, 2014. "Degreasing The Wheels Of Finance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 735-763, August.
    23. Ohik Kwon & Seungduck Lee & Jaevin Park, 2022. "Central bank digital currency, tax evasion, and inflation tax," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1497-1519, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt; Inflation; Deficit; Central bank independence; Time-consistency; Inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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